English Football League / Richard Walker / 10 May 2008 /

Richard Walker continues his epic set of play-off previews with today's lunchtime kick-off. Neil Warnock's Crystal Palace will be delighted just to be involved, but after an incredible run of form they will be making Bristol City very nervous.

Back in mid-November, Crystal Palace were second-bottom of the Championship with 16 points - Neil Warnock had not long replaced Peter Taylor as manager and the side was lurching from one under-performance to the next.

Sixteen wins later - yes 16(!), fast forward to find the Eagles easing themselves past Watford into fifth and a play-off final semi-final against out-of-form Bristol City.

Neither side has any major injury concerns - although, laughably, City's official website were telling those that care to read that the injury news on Stephen Brooker is being kept under wraps...yeah, okay boys. The Wayne Rooney of the west country he ain't! If he's fit, telling everyone will not even register on the footballing Richter Scale.

As unpredictable as the three-game play-off lottery is in general terms, I can't see past a home win for this match. Lap up the [1.84] to back Palace to edge in front. City are out at [5.3] while the draw rates about 3.65] chance to back.

Across all three Football League divisions, it's Warnock's men who arrive at this point with their form book still intact. At home first with the return leg at Ashton Gate on Tuesday evening, I suspect they'll race out of the blocks so avail of the [3.1] shot Palace/Palace in the Half Time/Full Time market. Draw/Palace, at [5.3], is enough of a price to cover if you feel it's warranted. And if you're not a fan of the two halves betting, how about [2.6] to back Palace to be leading at half-time?

With nine wins at home and nine away, trying to read a form line in the Championship really is like trying to nail jelly to the office wall. What I do know is they'd have laughed at you down in London SE25 if you'd have mentioned the play-offs before the turn of the year. Now all the talk's about the Premier League and how they are the form side of the Championship quartet.

Indeed, Warnock's trying to paint any team other than his as favourites - saying that the winners of the Hull-Watford semi should be considered the most likely candidates. But he knows that's hogwash. The free-scoring Eagles having enjoyed the flight of Icarus without the singed wings to show for it.

I can't quite decide if there'll be a few goals or not. Southend and Doncaster, both noted for attack-minded and attractive football, couldn't muster one between them last night and I'm kind of leaning that way. Still, you decide; the Over/Under 2.5 goals market prices are [2.34] to back Overs and [1.73] for Unders.

My idea of a Correct Score is something like 2-1 to the south-east London hosts. That can be backed at [9.4] but don't make it your only selection from that list. A couple of others need covering; such as 2-0 - also about a [9.4] chance, and, at odds of [7.0], a 1-0 home victory.

Genuine quality goalscorers are in short supply for this match - but I feel if you're going to dabble with names, avoid City since their goals are spread around a strike-force and midfield which is largely interchangeable.

The talk of the Selhurst Park is winger Victor Moses, one of the teenage bright young things thrust into first-team action by a manager who'd seen enough from some of the older heads during those early games to convince him youth had to play a part going forward. Wily Warnock's been rewarded for that course of action, with Moses among the stand-out performers. That his odds To Score are just [3.75] reflects his progress. Embrace those odds and also the First Goalscorer scenario which sees Moses at [8.4] to back and Clinton Morrison, who's worth covering with, a [6.2] shot.

Lunch-time kick-offs aren't always the most entertaining since players' body clocks are set for 3pm on a Saturday - well at Football League level, anyway. But this is one date in the midday sun which I expect to be full of passion...and a Palace triumph.

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