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Championship Betting : West Brom v Southampton

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A win for West Brom would see them back in the Premiership next season, defeat for Southampton will add to their on and off the pitch troubles. Andrew French looks ahead to the match and the betting.

Just about every result on Saturday that could turn the heat up on Southampton in Monday's Sky Sports live game materialised.

Things were looking reasonably rosy for them as Sheffield Wednesday trailed at Leicester - but then the Owls stormed back to win and dumped the Saints into the bottom three. If that wasn't enough, events at the other end of the table were conspiring to knock West Brom off the top.

So instead of the Baggies possibly needing a win to be crowned champions, they need at least a point to start the final day of the season in pole position. And rather than having at least one team between them and the drop zone, the Saints would need a win to go into Sunday's last day in a position of safety.

It looks pretty bleak for Southampton - and I can't see any respite at The Hawthorns.

Here we have the team that has scored more goals at home than any other hosting the side that has conceded the most goals away from home. Obviously the stats don't always point the way forward, but Albion will want to make sure of victory in what will be their last home game of the season. They face a far tougher task on paper (away to QPR) on the last day.

The Baggies are not mathematically certain of promotion, but it would need them to lose both these last two fixtures and Hull to win both theirs - with a 12-goal swing in the process. Most unlikely.

So this game is all about Albion betting back to the top and, in the process, guaranteeing promotion. Even at [1.61], I'd be backing them. The draw at [4.2] tempts me as it would still take Albion top and up, but I can't get excited about the [6.2] on offer about the Saints.

If the price about West Brom is too skinny for you, consider backing them to be ahead at half-time and full-time at [2.32]. They have not led at the break in any of their last three home fixtures and Tony Mowbray will be very keen to gain the ascendancy early.

I am expecting goals. Southampton are not good travellers and struggle to keep their hosts out. They have not kept a clean sheet in their last 21 away trips, and four of their last seven Championship awaydays have produced four goals or more.

That will be music to the ears of the Albion, who have scored three or more goals in over a third of their home league games this season. Even allowing for the fact this may be a little more cagey than most, I'd be keen on backing Over 3.5 goals at [2.6].

In the Correct Score market, a 3-1 West Brom victory at [13] catches the eye, although when you look at some recent results at The Hawthorns (4-3, 1-4), it may be an idea to add in Any Unquoted at [5.6].

The price won't be huge, but it has to be worth backing Kevin Phillips to score in the game. The striker has 14 goals in 19 appearances at The Hawthorns this season, but only two in his last eight - that suggests he's overdue to find the target in front of the Baggies faithful. And with his contract still not sorted out, there's a chance this could be his last home game.