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Championship Betting: Stoke can take a big step towards promotion

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Stoke City host Bristol City in a match that will have a huge say in terms of who will go up. Here's what Andrew French thinks will happen on the day...

In a Championship promotion race where the chief contenders have spent much of the last couple of months holding the door open for their rivals, this weekend's live Sky Sports clash between Stoke and Bristol City could really end the chances of securing one of the two automatic places for either - or both.

The Potters and the Robins have both led the table recently, and yet with West Brom and Hull claiming important midweek victories, they head into Saturday's live game at the Britannia Stadium facing the real reality that their profligacy of late will now come back to haunt them.

Stoke have won two of their last six games, City just one. With the generally accepted theory that teams going into the play-offs on the back of a run of good form have a by far greater chance, these two badly need to win this game for that reason alone - never mind to have any chance of finishing in the top two.

Trying to work out which way this one will go is not easy. Stoke have not won any of their last three home games, City have failed to win their last four on the road.

I'm edging towards Stoke, if only because of home advantage. However, I also think they have more potential matchwinners in their squad - the likes of Ricardo Fuller and Liam Lawrence could make all the difference in what may well turn out to be a war of attrition.

The home side can be backed at [2.16] to come out on top - although I'm not averse to laying Bristol at [4.1] and having the draw in my armoury, such has been Stoke's ability to make hard work of things at home.

Stoke have not been helped by new injuries to skipper Andy Griffin, who is out for the season, and on-loan striker Shola Ameobi. That could offer some encouragement to the visitors.

However, their slightly better recent form and the encouragement of a packed Britannia pushes me towards Stoke, although I think they'll have to work hard for victory. Gary Johnson's team have founded their success on total commitment and a never-say-die attitude, and I can see them holding Stoke until at least the break. Therefore, Draw/Stoke at [4.8] in the Half-Time/Full-Time market is something I'll be having a look at.

Although Stoke have been involved in some high-scoring encounters this season, just lately things have been much tighter: their last seven games have contained only 13 goals.

City, meanwhile, are one of the lowest scoring sides in the division and more than half their league games since the turn of the year have produced two goals or less.

Therefore, I'm prepared to include backing at Under 2.5 goals at [1.75] among my bets.

In line with that, Stoke to win 1-0 at [8.6] would be my thoughts on the correct score market, although I'm inclined to add in the 1-1 draw at [6.8] as well.

One other bet I'd consider would be backing Stoke to be Championship winners at the currently-available [5.4].

If they do manage to see off City, they could well end the day top of the pile with the current top two, Albion and Hull, both facing tricky away games. Even a move up to second would shorten Stoke's price and give you a trading option.

Although with Stoke's last two games being away to basement boys Colchester and then home to struggling Leicester, you may just want to let it run.