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Championship betting: Make or break time for Watford at The Hawthorns

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Andrew French thinks defeat for Watford away to West Brom could well signify the end of their chances of automatic promotion but what does he make of the betting for the game?

It's never easy previewing games involving your own team, and it's even harder when it's such a huge fixture which could well decide whether the club you support goes up automatically or not.

I spent my formative years at Vicarage Road, I worked for the club and still have many friends there. My heart has told me throughout the second half of this season, as the Hornets have struggled to match their scintillating form at the start of the campaign, that everything would be fine.

But the 3-0 home defeat on Wednesday night at the hands of a Barnsley team that only won once away all season has finally aligned my heart with my head. I think Watford will have to rely on the play-offs to go up, and I fear defeat against West Bromwich Albion at The Hawthorns on Saturday will probably confirm that.

I'm still undecided whether to have a bet on this one, or simply watch the game on Sky and let the emotion and significance of the occasion give me all the adrenaline I need. However, in terms of Match Odds, I'd probably suggest laying Watford at [4.6] - and that's not because I can't bring myself to back Albion! The Hornets have got an exceptional record on the road, and although they haven't won too many games of late, they are incredibly hard to beat: only two defeats in their last 15 league games underlines that.

But the fact those two reverses have come in the last couple of weeks is what makes me fearful about their promotion push - and I am also a huge admirer of West Brom, and the way they play football under Tony Mowbray.

I have felt all season they are the best team in the Championship and if things stay as they are, that will prove to be the case. In spite of their FA Cup run and a hectic schedule of six games in 21 days, Albion have emerged with plenty of credit - and most importantly, at the top of the Championship table.

I am told they were largely second best for the first 80 minutes of their midweek game at Blackpool, but three goals in the closing stages earned them the 3-1 success that took them top. How many times have we seen title-winning teams eke out a victory when the balance of play suggested otherwise?

The key thing with the Baggies is they score goals. They may let a few in at the other end, but they have goal-scoring potential all over the pitch, and more to come from the bench.

Watford have not been shy in the goal stakes themselves, and they take the best away goalscoring record in the Championship to the Hawthorns, where Albion have scored more than any other side at home. Surely a recipe for goals - I think so, and therefore Over 2.5 at [1.9] is attractive.

The slight concern is that Watford have struggled to find the net of late: just three goals in their last six games. They also have some doubts over their forwards with both Darius Henderson and Nathan Ellington substituted during the defeat to Barnsley with knocks, and Tommy Smith missing the game altogether.

The Baggies' open style of play has meant that in each of their last five home league games, the first goal has arrived between 14 and 45 minutes, with the majority close to the mid-point of the first-half.

Therefore, covering 21-30 minutes and 31-40 minutes respectively is worth consideration - look out for the prices on these two runners nearer the time when there is some money in this market.

Hopefully it will be a game that, for once, suggests the promotion contenders may have a chance of being more than Premiership punchbags next season - and if Watford totally screw up all my predictions, I'll be happy to be proved totally wrong!