English Football League / Richard Walker / 07 April 2008 / Leave a comment

Richard Walker laments the poor quality of The Championship sides that are most likely to be promoted this year and predicts a poor match as Stoke host a resilient Crystal Palace. Here's what he has to say on the betting.

In the division no one wants to win, Tony Pulis's Stoke City are under the spotlight this evening, enjoying the chance to go clear atop the Championship if they can defeat Neil Warnock's Crystal Palace at home.

I say enjoying, but it could just as well be enduring because there isn't a side which, since Christmas, has wanted to lead this race to get pummelled - Derby-esque - next season, for that's what's going to happen to any of this lot going up.

To conceivably win automatic promotion with barely 80 points merely belies the mediocrity that flows through the heart of English football's second-flight. Ten years ago, Sunderland came third on goal difference with 90 points(!), before losing an epic Play-Off Final to Charlton. Here we have the Potters, on 69 points with five games left, able to lead the table. Ridiculous.

Making predictions about Championship fixtures is about as tricky as taking a job as the Lost Luggage officer in Heathrow's Terminal 5 - and about as unforgiving too. But I'll have a go...

Stoke have struggled to find the net too much of late (no more than one goal in their last eight games) while Palace boast the divison's meanest defence. The Eagles have let in just 16 away from home - also comfortably better than anyone else - and with Warnock knowing exactly what to expect from a Pulis side, this isn't going to be a thriller tonight.

Nerves will play their part, I'm sure. Just like Bristol City's faltering form, Stoke might be unbeaten in five but they've won just one of those. That's why my preference is for the draw, priced around [3.5], and a goalless draw at that - backable at about [10.0]. Alternatively, check the "no goalscorer" runner on the first goalscorer market to see if you can get a slightly bigger price (if the only goal of the match is an own goal you would of course also get paid out on this), though you won't be able to directly lay off your bet in-play on that particular market. Cover that scoreline with 1-1 at [7.4]. For the record, Palace are [4.3] to triumph with City about a [2.04] shot.

It's fair to mention that Stoke will be boosted by the availability of 14-goal top scorer Ricardo Fuller and centre-half Ryan Shawcross. Both have served two-match bans and have been lynchpins of the Potters' promotion push this term. The absence of Salif Diao from the Stoke midfield is unwanted but not as big a factor as the other two returning, Palace, meanwhile, could do with injury doubt James Scowcroft being fit to lead the front line though they have few other worries.

After that Warnock-inspired initial revival, Palace plateaued somewhat but have quietly strung together a seven-game unbeaten stretch and, as I say, I'm taking them to extend that tonight. Backing Unders in the Under/Over 2.5 goals market at [1.74] is, I'd wager, a good idea. In fact, I'd go a little bolder and dabble at [3.05] about their being Under 1.5 goals in that market. To complement these actions, I would be happy to lay 4 goals or more in the Total Goals market - at a liability of [4.6].

I'll round up by making a couple more suggestions, appertaining to my over-arching theory about a stalemate. A Palace clean sheet, at [4.1], is too tempting for me to avoid, and I think backing a Stoke shut out at [2.56] is perhaps the perfect cover to that bet. Remember, both could well come in, we're not taking one on against another here!

My fear in all this binary-style approach is the ability of City's Liam Lawrence to crack one in from distance. He's got 13 in the League this year and, in a first and foremost defensively-minded side, that's good going. Backing him at [12.5] makes a lot of sense to me.

Comply Or Die won The National. If Warnock's men comply with their probable spoiling game plan this evening, I can well envisage Sky Sports viewers being driven through boredom to consider watching the soaps on terrestrial telly before the first-half's out. It's a shame there isn't a market on the time of the first channel-hopping...

Tags: Championship betting, Clinton Morrison, Crystal Palace, Stoke City