Championship / Andrew Atherley / 25 February 2009 /

Andrew Atherley uses his trusted stats to explain why Wolves may well be worth siding with when it comes to promotion but not when it comes to winning the league. Going purely on price, that honour, say the stats, falls to Reading.

The Championship title race is bubbling up nicely, with only four points separating the top three in the table and a couple of teams threatening to burst out of the pack to mount a late challenge for automatic promotion.

For so long this season, it has appeared that Wolves, Birmingham and Reading would fight out the top two places, yet all three have shown signs of weakness in recent weeks. On current form (last eight games) none of the leading trio ranks in the top ten and leaders Wolves languish 23rd of the 24 Championship teams in the form table.

The tightness of the race is reflected in the Winner market, with Reading narrow favourites at [2.8] over Wolves at [2.98]. Reading are five points behind Wolves but have two games in hand, which theoretically puts them in the driving seat.

Birmingham arguably are a little too long at [5.8] in view of the fact that they have been in the thick of the battle all season and are just three points behind Wolves, both having played 34 games. Cardiff are not too far behind in the market at [8.0] even though they have 12 points to make up on leaders Wolves, albeit with four games in hand to achieve that target.
If we added maximum points from the games in hand held by Reading and Cardiff, on paper the order with 12 games to play would be 1) Reading, 65pts 2) Wolves, 64pts 3) Cardiff, 64pts 4) Birmingham 61pts.

Punters should be wary of making too many assumptions, however. For example, how likely is it that Cardiff can take a maximum 12 points from their four games in hand? Not very likely, based on their current average of 1.73 points per game (which would give them seven points from those four games) and the fact that their longest winning sequence this season lasted just two games. On that basis, we can put them on a theoretical 59 points rather than 64 points.

Average points per game is a good guide to the quality of teams when the games played are uneven. And what it tells us from the past 10 seasons is that, of the 23 teams with one of the highest two points averages (alone or jointly) at this stage of the season, 16 (70%) have secured automatic promotion.

That rises to 75% promotion when two teams are clear on points average, as they are this season with Wolves averaging 1.88 and Reading 1.84 points.

In eight of the past 10 seasons, the eventual champions had one of the best two points averages at this stage, which is a clear pointer to Wolves or Reading as the likely champions, even though Birmingham are close behind with a 1.82 points average.

There is another positive for Wolves in the fact that six of the last 10 champions have been top at the end of February, which is a position they are sure to retain after this weekend whatever the outcome of their home match against Plymouth.

Yet in two recent seasons with a similar look to the table, the leaders at the end of February did not go on to win the title. Two seasons ago Birmingham were in the exact position held by Wolves now (top with 64 points from 34 games) and they were beaten to the title by Sunderland, who came from fourth to overhaul them.

Two seasons before that, Wigan led with 66 points after 34 games, with Ipswich level on points and Sunderland three behind, all three teams having played the same number of games. Again it was Sunderland that came out on top with Wigan second and Ipswich third.

The good news for Wolves from those examples is that the leaders in those two seasons both secured automatic promotion even though they did not win the title. In the past 10 seasons, in fact, nine of the 10 leaders at this stage have been promoted. Wolves, then, look a solid bet at [1.61] in the Promotion market.

The concern for Wolves backers, and fans, will be the way they collapsed from a strong position on the run-in to the 2001/02 season, which is the exception to the rule that leaders at this stage go on to be promoted. The ashes of that disaster, which saw them miss out on promotion after blowing a 10-point advantage over third-placed West Brom in the last 10 games, are being raked over in view of their recent poor run.

That was with a different team and a different manager, however, and it might be risky to label Wolves as chokers based on what happened seven years ago.

Even so, momentum is a crucial factor at this stage. One way of measuring momentum is to compare how each team's points average has progressed, or regressed, over the past three months. In the past 10 seasons, eight teams in a challenging position had raised their points average by 0.25 per game over that period (which is a lot more than it may sound) and five of them went on to finish in the top two.

The regressive teams this season are certainly Wolves and Birmingham, who were averaging 2.35 and 2.05 points per game respectively three months ago. Reading are on a slight upward curve, but the real movers are Cardiff, who fall just short of the 0.25 improvement, and Bristol City, who have improved their points average by 0.26 over the past three months to go from 13th to fourth.

Bristol City have some pedigree, having finished fourth last season when they lost to Hull in the playoff final, and look a decent bet for promotion at [7.2]. They are unlikely to grab a top-two placing, but they are looking good for the top six and their odds will shorten if they make the playoffs again.

With Wolves in a stronger position than Birmingham (whose poor goal difference effectively puts them a further point behind) and having several stats in their favour, another way to play the Promotion market is to lay Birmingham at [2.4]. There is trading potential if the Blues end up in the playoffs.

Reading are worthy favourites at [2.8] in the Winner market, as the stats say that in a tight race the team with one of the best two points averages and the additional bonus of momentum (which is where Reading have the edge over Wolves) is the one to be with.

It is difficult to rate Reading the best bet in the Championship markets, however, because if we look at their remaining fixtures and extrapolate their performance so far against those types of teams, they will add 23 more points to their current total. On the same measure Wolves will also take 23 points, even though they have fewer games left, and so they will retain their current advantage. Assuming, of course, that their recent slump is not any more prolonged.

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