Championship / Andrew French / 29 May 2011 /

Swansea go into the final as marginal favourites but there are good reasons to think that shouldn't necessarily be the case. Side with the outsiders in a low-scoring contest, says Andrew French.

Here it is then. The £90m match. The richest game in football. Call it what you like. It's a big 'un and it's going to very quickly change the summer, and the whole of next season, for the victors.

On Monday afternoon, either Swansea or Reading will be a Premier League club, and with that comes the wealth, glamour and microscopic media interest that a seat at English football's top table brings.

By dint of being such a huge fixture, more often than not the final isn't a great spectacle for the neutral. We all remember the stand-out games, like Charlton's 7-6 on penalties after a 4-4 draw with Sunderland in 1998, and last year's match wasn't bad either, with all five of the goals in Blackpool's 3-2 win coming in the first half.

But they're exceptions. Five of the last seven finals have finished 1-0 - although if you've got the bank, then laying 0-0 at 90 minutes at [10.5] should almost certainly pay-out: only one final has ever been goalless since the move away from a two-legged affair in 1990.

Obviously with two of the division's best sides involved, and both having had to win over two legs against another top-six club, it's bound to be hard to call. Personally, I don't see why Swansea are the [2.72] jollies myself. Granted, they are probably the team that is easiest on the eye, playing a patient and attractive brand of football where the ball seldom travels far through the air.

But on form, it's Reading for me. The Royals are anything but long-ball merchants themselves, and they have developed into a side that is very hard to beat. They have lost only one of their last 18 games including the semi-final - and their recent performances away from the Madejski are particularly encouraging: nine without defeat stretching back to mid-February.

What's more, they have not conceded a goal in their last four away, the outstanding 3-0 second-leg win at Cardiff the most recent of them.

Swansea did finish two places and three points clear of Reading, but their recent form - six wins in 14 games - is not as eye-catching. What may make Swansea favourites is that they beat Reading home and away during the season, but given the most recent of those encounters was on New Year's Day, I am more inclined to look at what the two sides have achieved in the last couple of months or so.

What we do have are a couple of teams who will play good football, but won't give much away. Two of the best five defences in the Championship are on view here, and although much will be made of the fact we have strikers of the calibre of Shane Long and Scott Sinclair, I'm not anticipating a goal feast. Both meetings during the season finished 1-0 and so, while it it may not be the fattest price, backing Under 2.5 goals at [1.75] has to enter your considerations.

I can also see it taking until into the second half for the breakthrough. The last two Play-Off Finals have seen an opening goal inside a quarter of an hour, but the first strike didn't arrive until the 57th minute or later in three of the last seven. When the Swans beat Reading in January, the only goal came after 65 minutes - and so I'd suggest covering first-goal times of 51-60 (at [10.5]) and 61-70 (at [15.0]).

As I said earlier, my preference is for Reading and if you wanted a goalscorer bet, I'd have to suggest Long at around [7.0] simply because he netted nearly every other game during the season and he looked sharp in the semi-final second leg win at Cardiff.

However, the best bet for me is to take Reading as winners, but to cover the possibility that this could be the first final since 2002 to go beyond the regulation 90 minutes, I'd suggest backing them in the Draw No Bet market rather than in the match odds.

Best bet:

Back Reading to win in Draw Now Bet at [2.02]

Recommended bets:

Back Under 2.5 goals at [1.75]
Back First Goal times of 51-60 ([10.5]) and 61-70 ([15])

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: