Championship / Richard Walker / 10 May 2009 / Leave a comment

Preston may have missed the boat after conceding a lead at Deepdale so it's very much advantage Sheffield United. But this is the play-offs and holding your nerve is the name of the game, says Richard Walker. Best bet: Lay The Draw @ [4.2].

So, it's advantage Sheffield United then.

Even without the away goals rule confusing things, the fact United head back to Bramall Lane at 1-1 after Friday night's first leg is clearly in their favour. You got the feeling that Preston really needed to be leaving Deepdale with a least a one-goal advantage to defend - but Brian Howard's leveller for the Blades seconds after half-time really does put the Yorkshiremen in the box seat.

Drawn first legs are not all that common - only two in the last five years. And when the first game has ended in a stalemate, it's even rarer for the second leg to end all-square: you have to go back to 2000 for the last time that happened.

That's largely because, after a tied first leg and with no away goals rule to sway things, the second leg effectively becomes a winner-takes-all, one-match shoot-out. So, for my money, the bet of the night in the game at Bramall Lane is to lay The Draw at [4.2]. Someone will, I believe, win the game in 90 minutes, most probably the home side (available to back at [2.14]). If you fancy Preston then they can be backed at [3.85], but I think they may have missed their opportunity.

Their away form in the regular season was comfortably the worst of the four Play-Off sides, with only five wins all season. They managed just one point and one goal on their trips to the three sides that finished directly above them in the table.

United aren't certs though. The equaliser at Deepdale was their first goal in open play since Howard scored at Reading a month ago, and, having only netted twice in their last five games, they are hardly firing on all cylinders.

But their home form is impressive - they've not been beaten at Bramall Lane since losing in the Sheffield derby in early February. I can't see there being much in it and, unlike my feelings about the first leg, I think this will be low-scoring which makes backing Under 2.5 Goals at [1.79] the suggestion. Ignore extra-time strikes, and only two of the last 10 second legs have borne more than two goals.

With that in mind, I'd be inclined to include a couple of Correct Score bets: 1-0 and 2-0 to United at [8.2] and [9.2] respectively.

What is clear is there is little to choose between the two sides: they've drawn twice at Deepdale and United shaded the league game at Bramall Lane 1-0. I think they'll edge through again, but may need time to break Preston down: Draw/United at [5.1] in the Half-Time/Full-Time market is definitely worth consideration.

With the most valuable domestic game as the prize for the winners, who will hold their nerve?