Championship Play-Off Final Betting: Burnley v Sheffield United

Championship / Richard Walker / 25 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

Contrasting styles clash at Wembley this afternoon as two teams from either side of the Pennines meet for arguably the biggest prize in English football. But who does Richard Walker expect to see in the top flight next season? Best Bet: Lay Sheff Utd for Promotion @ [1.92].

I backed Burnley for promotion at [4.0] before the start of the play-offs - and I'm more than happy to be sitting on that voucher. I really do think it's their time; it would certainly be reward for a season where they have made their mark in both cup competitions and still managed to maintain their promotion push.

There is little to choose between them and Sheffield United though, as evidenced by the Match Odds prices available. The Blades can be backed at [2.66], it's [3.35] if you want so support the draw while Burnley - where I'd advise you invest - are [2.94] to win in 90 minutes.

In fact, tight Championship play-off finals have been the norm in recent seasons: four of the last five have finished 1-0. I don't think there will be more than a goal between the sides on Monday, but I do think both will score and for that reason I am offering up a 2-1 Burnley victory at [12.5] in the Correct Score market.

Allied to that, include backing Over 2.5 goals in your portfolio for this one at [2.42]. With only six goals in the four games so far, these have been the lowest scoring Championship play-offs since 1996. We're due a bit of action, so you may even want to consider backing Over 3.5 goals at [4.7].

The Clarets will do well to manage one goal as good as the outstanding pair they netted in their 2-0 semi-final second leg win at Reading, but I am convinced they will find the net in 90 minutes. They have scored at least once in 20 of their last 21 outings (the only exception was a very excusable FA Cup defeat at Arsenal). Their patient but effective build-up play will certainly mean they get chances.

So among my best bets has to be backing No to a Sheffield United clean sheet at [1.43].
The Blades have had the more hampered preparations for this massive match. Veteran midfielder Gary Speed is definitely out due to a back problem, while strikers Darius Henderson and Jamie Ward are both battling to be fit.

I'd also be a little bit concerned that manager Kevin Blackwell has voiced his disapproval at the appointment of Mike Dean to officiate the game. He may have a valid point that choosing Dean - who infuriated the Blades by sending off defender Matthew Kilgallon in the Sheffield derby earlier in the season - is not the wisest decision, but at this point, I'd prefer my club's manager to be focusing his energies elsewhere. It seems an unnecessary distraction to be complaining about a referee before he's even got the coin out of his pocket to toss up.

In contrast, I like the way Owen Coyle handles himself; minimal histrionics, a great approach to playing the game and has wisely taken his players away for a break out of the spotlight for a few days. If he gets Burnley up, as I think he will, he could prove to be one of the best young managers around - even if keeping them there will be a tall order.

One thing you can expect from Burnley is patience. They took something of a battering from Reading before scoring in both the first and second legs, but stood firm, kept to their game plan and never resorted to hit and hope. I think they may well be happy to absorb some United pressure, and so would suggest backing Draw/Burnley in the Half-Time/Full-Time market at [6.8].

I am slightly nervous that Sheffield United may be a tougher nut for Burnley to crack than Reading, who had been on a downward spiral for some time and looked a shadow of the side that had been flying before Christmas.

Therefore I'd advise you to seek out the Championship promotion market and lay the Blades at [1.92]. It's not the most daunting liability you'll ever take on, and it's basically putting any manner of Burnley victory on your side.

Like I say, Burnley stood out for me before a play-off ball was kicked and nothing has changed. It shouldn't come down to luck and superstition but, if it does, Coyle might even have covered that angle.

He took his players to the same Spanish resort that he went to 14 years ago as Bolton player, a trip which preceded him scoring as the Trotters won the memorable 1995 final 4-3 after extra-time against Reading.

Coyle will gladly take a repeat this year - however my nerves might not handle seven goals and extra-time!