Championship / Richard Walker / 08 May 2009 / Leave a comment

Could Preston be peaking at the right time to shock Sheffield United? Richard Walker thinks so. Best Bet: Back Preston @ [2.62].

So here we go for the annual end-of-season test of nerves that are the Championship play-offs - with Preston no doubt feeling they're somewhat gate-crashing the party.

North End's hopes looked dead in the water when they lost at home to Blackpool over the Easter weekend, but four consecutive wins turned things around. Pipping Cardiff to a play-off berth by dint of one goal is satisfying enough; but knowing that the 6-0 win over the Bluebirds in mid-April was the result that made it possible is doubly pleasing.

With home advantage in this opening leg, Alan Irvine's side are going to need another strong display at Deepdale. The portents aren't good though: in the last three seasons only one team at home in the first leg has gone on to reach the final, and even then Leeds (in 2006) did it the hard way by drawing the first game and winning the second.

If Preston have come with a late rattle, then Sheffield United have been the team with sustained good form over the closing stages of the season. Always in and around the top of the table, the Blades lost just once in their final 14 games, a sequence that included five consecutive victories.

Kevin Blackwell's men overcame the sale of striker James Beattie and still managed to maintain their promotion push - although somewhat worryingly they have just started to misfire in front of goal. They scored just one in their last four games and that was a penalty.

It's that slight dip in form at the crucial time - highlighted by their inability to break down Crystal Palace on Sunday - that leads me to suggest the Lancashire Whites will have the edge in this first leg. Back North End at [2.62], it's my bet of the night. United are priced at [2.9] and The Draw is a [3.4] chance. Lay the Blades if you're not so certain, but if you'd seen the way Preston celebrated on reaching the top six last Sunday, you'll know they're bang up for this!

Hand-in-hand with that suggestion is a lay of a Sheffield clean sheet. Your liability will be around [3.95] but you'll have few causes for concern.

With that in mind, I'd also consider getting involved with the [2.08] about Preston to qualify. If they do win the first leg, that price is bound to shorten - then you have the option to trade out at a profit, or let it run.

One bet I will certainly be having on both semi-final first legs is backing over 2.5 goals. It's over 12 years since there was a goalless first leg and these matches, full of nerves as they are, tend to populated by some defensive errors to keep overs backers interested.

Ignore all the chat about 'keeping it tight' and 'it'll be cagey'. Back Over 2.5 goals at [2.32].