Championship Play-Off Betting: Burnley v Reading

Championship / Richard Walker / 07 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

Burnley have momentum and are the most consistent of all four play-off contestants, according to Richard Walker, and that's why he's backing them to go all the way. Best Bet: Lay Reading @ [3.1].

I've got to express an interest here. I've backed Burnley at [4.0] in the 'Promotion 2008/09' market, which now only covers the four play-off contenders.

I've got my doubts about the other three sides involved, despite any recent form they may have displayed: Sheffield United (goals and wins have dried up), Reading (out of form, especially at home), Preston (inconsistent).

Allied to that, given the play-offs really are a mini-tournament, who else would you want on your side other than the team that has starred in both domestic cup competitions?

Okay, so the big four may well have farmed the silverware (again), but if there were an award for cup team of the year, it would have to be Burnley. They claimed the scalps of Chelsea, Arsenal, Fulham and West Brom, and pushed Spurs all the way in the Carling Cup semi-final - while keeping their promotion push firmly on track. All credit to Scottish boss, Owen Coyle.

That can only stand them in good stead in a two-legged semi and a final at Wembley. They may have played a huge number of games (58 so far in all competitions), but I cannot imagine Coyle allowing weariness to creep in. And they are in form too; their only hiccup in the league came in the midst of their cup exploits earlier in the season. Since they have only had league games in their sights, 21 out of the 30 points on offer is a decent finish.

Contrast that with Reading who've won just four of their last 16 league games and will have to contend with the disappointment of missing out on automatic promotion, especially as they would have gone up had they won at home last weekend despite their appalling form.

Their home record has been a particular problem. How can a side that won its first six league games of the season at the Madejski, netting 21 goals in the process, end the season without a home success in eight games since late January? Only the vagaries of the topsy-turvy Championship - and perhaps Royals' boss Steve Coppell - can answer that one.

However it's his side's ability to negate opposition threat (seven of the last 16 games were draws, with only 13 goals conceded) makes me suggest laying Reading at [3.1]. Burnley can be backed at [2.52] while it's [3.45] if you fancy The Draw.

As in the first semi-final, I suggest backing over 2.5 goals at [2.2]. Reading have scored two goals in each of their last three away games and, such is their poor recent home form, they may decide they need to go for it in this away leg. That will suit Burnley, who were the joint second-highest home goal-getters in the regular season.

I'm making my best bet a correct score suggestion though. Both teams have free-scoring strikers; Burnley will want to head south with a win and Reading will want to take something back with them. I can see it ending 2-2, and at [18.5], it's a price that could give you a nice balance for the second legs.