Championship Betting: Saints' deduction costs other clubs too

Championship / Nik Wardle / 24 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

Nick Wardle considers the knock-on effect of Southampton's points penalty for the clubs around them in the Championship.

As I wrote in my blog a couple of weeks ago, I believe under the current rules, Southampton deserve to be given their points deduction.

However, it can be argued that the timing of the announcement has handed an advantage to Burnley and Nottingham Forest, who play Saints over the final two weeks of the season and who both have things left to play for.

Officials and supporters of Forest's relegation rivals, in particular, must be annoyed. I'm not saying that Saints players won't try in their final two games but their morale must be on the floor and their motivation for these games surely won't be the same as it would've been if they still believed they had a chance of staying up.

With Reading (H) and Charlton (A) to come, Norwich face a difficult task to stay in The Championship and are at [1.66] to be relegated. The Canaries have a better goal difference than all their relegation rivals and with Forest currently having the worst and sitting just three points ahead, Norwich may have targeted them as a side they could've caught. Unlikely now, though.

Barnsley have two tricky fixtures against Wolves (H) and Plymouth (A) to come and are at [3.3]. That they play fellow strugglers Plymouth (10.0) gives both teams a chance of getting the points required to see them to safety.

Forest are out at [7.2] and as they should beat Saints, I think they'll stay up. Likewise Derby, who require two points to be certain and Watford and Blackpool, who need just a point each, will all be safe and are not worth backing.

I believe the final relegation placing will be between Norwich and Barnsley and given that just two points separate them and their remaining fixtures are about even, I think Barnsley are worth a wager.

Burnley sit in the final play-off place, four points ahead of Swansea and Preston, and victory over Saints will see them clinch their place. They will be strong favourites to beat out-of-form Bristol City in their final game anyway, but if their top six place is secured this weekend, Burnley can rest players ahead of the play-offs.

Given Saints' current form, it may well have been the case that Burnley and Forest would beat them anyway but I think to ensure a more level playing field, the Football League should've delayed their announcement until the end of the season. It may have been cruel on Saints if they'd got enough points to stay up but they were always going to be running that risk, having gone into administration.