Championship Betting Preview: Back the draw in Ninian Park promotion show-down

Championship / Andrew French / 31 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

We're not even a third of the way through the Championship season, but already Sky are serving up a live game that could have a big say in the battle for promotion to the Premiership, says Andrew French.

If Wolves can beat Cardiff at Ninian Park in the teatime kick-off, then the Midlands club would move nine points clear of their Welsh rivals. That's quite an advantage, even in a relatively embryonic league table. However, as Watford found out 12 months ago, being streets ahead at this stage counts for very little.

And I don't think Wolves will win this one. They've certainly made a great start and have scored goals for fun, but their defensive record is, for a team at the top of the table, very ordinary indeed. They've shipped 22 in 14 games, the same number as basement boys Doncaster.

In their last three away games, Mick McCarthy's side have conceded 10 goals. That can't continue if they are serious about going up.

Cardiff are unbeaten in six, although three of those games were against teams in the bottom six. However, they should be able to take a point from this one - indeed, they have shown a penchant for drawing games with half of their league fixtures finishing all square this season.

I'd suggest backing the draw at [3.3]. Cardiff look set to be slight favourites as they are [2.7] to back, with Wolves at [2.98].

In the Correct Score market, I'd steer clear of 0-0: Wolves, unsurprisingly given the goal stats I gave earlier, have not been involved in a goalless league match this season. If you've brave enough, you can lay 0-0 at [14.5]. Backing 1-1 and 2-2 at [7] and [17.5] respectively is my Correct Score suggestion.

I can see Wolves getting ahead. For all their weaknesses at the back, they certainly know how to score down the other end. Strikers Sylvain Ebanks-Blake and Chris Iwelumo have already shared 18 goals this season. Therefore, Wolves/Draw at [14.0] in the Half-Time/Full-Time market is appealing.

And I'd certainly consider either of those Wolves strikers if you're thinking of having a First Goalscorer bet. It's not original - but does it matter if it pays out?!

Elsewhere in the Championship, I'm hoping one of my former employers, Charlton Athletic, can end of a run of four games without a win when fellow strugglers Barnsley visit The Valley.

The Addicks have had to suffer the off-field disappointment of a potential big-money takeover falling through. Results on the pitch have not helped morale but, with away games at Plymouth and Birmingham up next, Alan Pardew will know his side simply must beat Barnsley if they don't want to slide into the bottom three.

The Tykes climbed out of the relegation zone thanks to their first away win of the season in midweek - but that was at Doncaster, who really are in the mire. Barnsley have generally travelled badly and Tuesday's 1-0 success was their first on the road since April.

It's the Addicks for me at [2.04], and I'd consider Over 2.5 goals at [2.22] in this one: seven home games at The Valley have produced 21 goals this season.

I've already mentioned Doncaster a couple of times, and any team that can lose at home to Barnsley has got some problems. In fact, their home record is dire this season: one win and two goals in seven games, and they haven't scored in front of their own fans for more than eight-and- a-half-hours.

This looks a bit of an open goal for visitors Swansea, whose narrow defeat at Wolves in midweek was their first for five games. I'll back the Swans at [2.56].

One of the meanest defences around at the moment is Sheffield United's. The Blades have conceded just one goal in their last six games, and they would surely have taken more than 11 points from those fixtures if their expensive strikers had been firing on all cylinders.

However, I'm prepared to give James Beattie and co another chance to bag me a winning bet by backing them at [1.81] to beat Plymouth.

And I'll combine Charlton, Swansea and Sheffield United in a treble on Betfair Multiples, which pays around [8.68].