Championship / Andrew French / 16 April 2009 / Leave a comment

A team fighting relegation or chasing promotion take on a mid-table bunch with nothing to play for, so who's your money on? That's a silly question for Andrew French, who believes motivation is all you need to look for with this week's Championship wagers. Best Bet: Back Southampton to beat Sheff Wed at [2.98]

At this time of year, the debate rages as to whether you'd rather back a team involved in the battle for promotion or to avoid relegation because they have so much to play for - or whether mid-table teams should carry your money because the pressure is off and they can play without a care.

For me, it has to be the former. If you are a Championship player, the prospect of reaching the promised land of the Premier League is all the motivation you need to find that extra percent of effort after 40-odd games. Similarly, if you're at the foot of the table, the spectre of disappearing into the anonymity of League One should provide ample reason to overcome that niggling injury for a couple more weeks.

Conversely, if you are tucked safely in mid-table, it's hard not to have half a brain on the beach. Your season is effectively finished, you're fulfilling fixtures the team you're playing against are clearly busting a gut ... so is chasing that long through-ball which looks like it's going out of play really worth the effort?

Look at the Bank Holiday games: Crystal Palace (13th), Watford (15th) and Doncaster (16th) all look like they have done enough to avoid the drop, they certainly aren't going anywhere in an upwards direction - and all three lost to sides either in the promotion shake-up or scrapping in the bottom six.

I'm thinking that pattern will continue this weekend, and so my best bet of the weekend is backing very troubled but plucky Southampton to win at Sheffield Wednesday.

Saints have been playing all season with the shadow of financial meltdown hanging over them, and now they have the added pressure of a possible points deduction to deal with. But the players can only affect on-field matters, and they clearly don't relish the prospect of trips to places like Stockport and Yeovil next season if Monday's gutsy 1-0 win over Crystal Palace was anything to judge by.

Like Palace, Wednesday are nicely tucked away in mid-table: even if they win their remaining three games the best they can achieve is 9th position. But back-to-back defeats suggests the Owls are less driven than those with something to play for - and with five defeats in their last seven at Hillsborough, it's not as they have been pulling up trees at home.

Southampton have to go for it, they have no choice - and I suggest backing them at [2.98] to keep their hopes of staying up alive.

I made my team Watford my best bet last weekend - then nearly put my two sons off football for life by taking them to watch that bet slip away in a 1-1 with Barnsley: a game that was about as bad as any I have witnessed. The Hornets were in deep trouble not so long ago, but barring an unlikely set of results, they ought to be safe now. Good job too, as by all accounts they were none too clever as they lost to Norwich on Monday.

The Vicarage Road pitch does nothing to help the passing game Brendan Rogers is trying to introduce to the Hornets, and with some of his young stars like Jack Cork and Ross Jenkins starting to look jaded, they are going to crawl across the safety line rather than march there.

Therefore, even though it's my club, Watford are a lay for me this weekend as they host a team with much more to inspire them: Birmingham. The Blues were knocked off second spot - albeit briefly - last weekend, and because they have made hard work winning games all season, I can't be confident about them beating Watford, who do have a certain never-say-die spirit under Rogers. Therefore, lay the Hornets at [3.85].

Elsewhere, it's hardly rocket science but I have to put up backing Wolves to beat QPR at [1.58]. Mick McCarthy's side showed that classic successful team characteristic - winning when playing badly - at Derby on Monday, and Rangers have been inconsistent enough without all the fun and games they are enduring again behind the scenes.

Lastly, Reading simply must win every game they have left to be sure of a play-off place, which might still be a disappointment given their proximity to the top two places for so long. They ought to be able to take three points against Barnsley, who have not won a game in a month, and so I will back the Royals at [1.61].