Championship Betting: Home boys Brum are a must to eclipse Norwich

Championship / Andrew French / 20 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

Birmingham City will probably slip-up at some point on their way towards promotion but not at home to Norwich, says Andrew French. Best Bet: Back Birmingham to beat Norwich at [1.88].

Some teams stride imperiously towards promotion, others really have to grind it out. Birmingham appear to fall into that second category.

They've been in the top three of the Championship pretty much all season and even if third-placed Reading win their game in hand, the Blues still have a point to spare over their nearest pursuers. Yet Alex McLeish's outfit have not been sweeping aside all before them - last weekend's 2-0 win at Doncaster was only their second success by more than a one-goal margin in 26 league outings.

They do win games, nonetheless. Their 13 home victories this term is the best tally in the division, and they have kept 10 clean sheets at St Andrews, three of them in their last three home games.

Visitors Norwich have shown signs of getting themselves out of trouble, and back-to-back home wins last week lifted them out of the bottom three. But the Canaries do not travel well (one win in the last 11 away games), and they are particularly porous as well: the 57 goals they have conceded so far makes their defence one of the poorest in the Championship.
Having said that, it's hard to see Birmingham turning on the goalscoring tap, so while suggesting they should be backed at [1.88], I'd also weigh in with backing Under 2.5 goals at [1.75].

It's almost time for the last rites down at The Valley, as Charlton may not yet be mathematically doomed to League One football yet, but that surely cannot be far away. The Addicks have the potential to reach 52 points if they were to win all their eight remaining fixtures - yet that sounds a preposterous notion when you consider they have won just six of the first 38.

Privately, Charlton must be preparing for life one rung down the ladder, and although their players talk about fighting for their lives and giving their all for the fans, that clearly hasn't been good enough in the last few weeks of their relegation battle as they have not win in six attempts.

Visitors Preston still have the play-offs very much in sight, but they'll need to start finding some consistency to make that ambition a reality. Last weekend's victory over Coventry was their first in four attempts.

The fact these two are 17 league places apart should make Preston more comfortable to back, but such is the unpredictability of the Championship, I advise laying Charlton at [2.82].

In racing there is often talk about 'horses for courses' - the football equivalent is a player who is outstanding at one club, fails to deliver when moving away, then rekindles his former glories when returning to the club where he attracted attention.

It appears Dave Kitson could be one such character. The striker averaged virtually a goal every two games for Reading, which prompted a £5.5m move to Stoke in the summer. Eighteen outings and no goals later, Kitson has returned to the Madejski on loan - and instantly found his scoring boots with the winner at Doncaster in midweek.

The Royals may well be grateful for Kitson's apparently talismanic qualities, as they were starting to look as if their promotion push was faltering. The midweek success at Rovers brought to an end a run of just one win in eight, during which time they garnered only two points from five home games.

Both their last two wins have come on the road, so they may be glad of another journey away from Berkshire this weekend, to visit hugely inconsistent Crystal Palace. The Eagles were beaten 3-1 at lowly Barnsley on Tuesday night, having previously won away at Swansea. Prior to that they were stuffed at Burnley but beat Preston.

Clearly a side not to risk your mortgage on, Palace could be perfect fodder for Reading, who cannot afford any further slip-ups now. Therefore, back the Royals at [2.5].