Champions League Betting Preview: Liverpool v Real Madrid

/ Tobias Gourlay / 09 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

Tobias Gourlay believes that Liverpool's current price of [1.34] is a little generous. However, he does see one ray of hope for Real. Best Bet: Back the half-time draw @ [2.00]

Rafa Benítez's prudent approach to European football was successful again in Spain two weeks ago.

Arjen Robben, Real Madrid's best player in domestic football this season, was the focus of special defensive attention, and came off looking like the playground ball-hog. With the Dutchman reduced to long shots of his own, if anything at all, Raúl and Higuaín were out of the game and a goalless draw looked likely. Then, in the 82nd minute, Fábio Aurélio delivered a free-kick that was too good for the home team's defence, and Liverpool became [1.34] favourites to reach the quarter-finals.

History suggests that price is a little generous. Since the introduction of two-legged knockout ties to the Champions League, only one team has come back from a home defeat to qualify for the next round. In 1995/96 a strong Ajax side beat Panathinaikos 3-0 after losing 1-0 in the first leg. Twenty-two other teams that have lost at home first have been eliminated.

A ray of hope for Real: after beating Barcelona 2-1 in the Camp Nou two seasons ago, Liverpool lost 1-0 at Anfield. A similar result again would call for extra-time. For inspiration from their own rich history Los Merengues can look only to the 1970/71 Cup Winners' Cup and a 2-0 win at Wacker Innsbruck. On four other occasions that they have lost 1-0 in home first legs they have been knocked out after the second leg.

Perhaps Míchel Salgado should give the team talk. The old full-back will not play on Tuesday evening but was part of the Celta Vigo side that won 1-0 at Anfield in 1998/99 to knock Liverpool out of the UEFA Cup.

Perhaps the team talk is superfluous. Ahead of Real's first ever competitive game at Anfield, some of the players believe the stadium's famous atmosphere will be to their benefit. Sergio Ramos, Salgado's replacement as first-choice right-back, and Gabriel Heinze think its 'beautiful' qualities will inspire them, while Raúl once watched his old pal Fernando Morientes stink the place out but remembers being 'stuck for words'.

Meanwhile, Benítez's pre-match chat suggests he will be going all-out to win the second leg. If you believed Chris Gayle last week when he said the West Indies would be playing to win the current Test match in Trinidad, you might also care to believe this. When Benítez's Reds have not needed to score in second legs at Anfield, they have beaten Chelsea and PSV 1-0, lost 1-0 to Barça, and, after Abou Diaby scored an early goal, beaten Arsenal 4-2. One goal for Real could be enough for them to win the tie (on penalties), so, if Fernando Torres is declared fit, it is difficult to see why the Liverpool manager would abandon the counter-attacking principles that served his team so well in the first leg. Under 2.5 Goals is on offer at [1.66].

Marca has reported that Juande Ramos will play the same XI that failed to score in the first leg, and leave his more creative midfielders - Wesley Sneijder and Guti - on the bench. If Robben is nullified again, Real will be light on innovation until one of those two is introduced. The [2.98] available for Under 1.5 Goals has some appeal then, but, if the Spanish newspaper is correct, and Ramos is prepared to wait until the second half to go full-gun for a goal, the half-time draw is also worth considering at [2.00].

All told, Liverpool, who should be improved by the return to fitness of Steven Gerrard, are in a strong position but can hardly afford to lose. Any defeat other than 1-0 would eliminate them either on aggregate or by the away goals rule; a 1-0 defeat would call for extra-time. Benítez will surely not be so careless. Liverpool -0 on the Asian handicap (a Draw No Bet, in other words) is a firm recommendation at [1.65].