Champions League Betting: History shows English clubs in strong position

/ Andrew Atherley / 05 March 2009 / 1 Comments

Everybody was doing the maths after the first legs of the Champions League last 16 ties. Just what did those first-leg results mean for each team's chance of progressing to the quarter-finals? Andrew Atherley consults the history books and the markets to find the answers.

Jose Mourinho reckoned it was 50-50 between Inter and Manchester United after their goalless draw at the San Siro, while Roma's Luciano Spalletti was prepared to cede a slight advantage to Arsenal after a 1-0 home win for the Gunners in the first leg. "It may be 49 per cent for Roma and 51 per cent for Arsenal because of the goal they scored," the Italian said.

Mourinho and Spalletti were both wrong, and the current Betfair odds on their clubs going through to the next round are a more accurate assessment of their chances. Inter are [2.68] to qualify at United's expense, which equates to a 37% chance, while Roma are [3.05] to knock out Arsenal, equivalent to a 33% chance.

What the managers should have done to get a better idea of their teams' chances was to look back at past results in Champions League knockout ties, which are a good guide to what will happen in the second legs.

Spalletti would have found that the overall qualification rate is just 37% for teams that failed to score an away goal in the first leg - in ties since 1994/95, the first season when two-leg knockout rounds were included in the Champions League format. And that shrinks to a mere 15% for teams that lost to nil, which paints an even bleaker picture for Roma than the Betfair market.

Mourinho, meanwhile, would have spotted that teams travelling away for the second leg after a goalless home draw have a 35% qualification rate, which backs up the odds currently available on Betfair.

Looking more specifically at the four ties involving English clubs, the presence or absence of an away goal is a crucial factor in determining their chances of progress. Arsenal and Chelsea both kept a home clean sheet in 1-0 wins, while United failed to score but were undefeated at Inter and Liverpool did best of all by scoring an away goal to win 1-0 at Real Madrid.

Let's deal with Liverpool first, because their position is the most secure from a statistical viewpoint. In 23 previous Champions League ties where the first leg was won by the away team, that team has gone through on 22 occasions. The only team to buck the trend was Ajax in 1995/96, coming back from a 1-0 home defeat by Panathinaikos to win the away leg 3-0. No team from the big five leagues has lost from Liverpool's position in 21 attempts, so Real will have to buck some serious trends to turn the tie around.

That indicates Liverpool are overpriced at [1.35] to qualify, and the trends suggest they are too long for a home win at [2.3] given that eight out of 12 home teams holding a 1-0 lead from the first leg have also won the second leg. The only one that lost, however, was Liverpool two seasons ago to Barcelona (losing 1-0 at Anfield after a 2-1 win in the Nou Camp, thereby going through on away goals).

The percentage chances of the other three English clubs progressing are somewhere in the low-to-mid 60s, which indicates that Chelsea are a little short at [1.39] against Juventus and so are Arsenal at [1.48] against Roma, while United are fairly priced at [1.58] to knock out Inter.

After a goalless draw in the first leg, the second-leg home team has qualified 13 times out of 20 (65%), which makes it very firmly advantage United no matter what Mourinho says. United knocked out Barcelona from the same position in the semi-final last season, winning 1-0 at Old Trafford, but Sir Alex Ferguson will be mindful that further back in time United were knocked out from this position against Monaco in 1997/98 and Real Madrid in 1999/00 - on the second occasion when they were, as now, reigning champions.

The potential precariousness of United's position is clear from the fact that of the 11 home teams that conceded an away goal in the second leg, only four progressed to the next round. "Whoever scores first will probably go through," was Rio Ferdinand's assessment, and he was more on the ball than Mourinho. Of the 20 ties that were goalless after the first leg, 18 have had goals in the second leg and all 18 were won by the team that opened the scoring.

If Inter score while the tie is still in the balance, it is they who should be around the [1.58] mark to qualify. If they score first, their odds should be even shorter. United, though, have conceded in just two of their nine Champions League home games since the start of last season and have the lowest goals-against (three) in this season's competition.

As for 1-0 first-leg home winners, they have qualified eight times out of 13 (six out of eight when scoring an away goal in the second leg). The interesting aspect of second-leg ties in this scenario is that they have a marked tendency to be low-scoring - 10 out of 13 (77%) under 2.5 goals and six out of 13 (46%) under 1.5 goals. In these games, the away team is intent on protecting their 1-0 lead while the home side adopts a cautious approach, knowing that as well as scoring it is important not to concede.

Similar figures apply to ties where the second-leg home team holds a one-goal lead (71% under 2.5 goals, 53% under 1.5 goals) and, with Rafa Benitez unlikely to take risks, Liverpool v Real Madrid could be low-scoring too. Seven out of 12 second legs have had under 1.5 goals after a 1-0 away win in the first leg, so that is another option in a tie with several potentially good-value bets.

Liverpool to qualify, Liverpool to win, under 1.5 goals and a Liverpool clean sheet (achieved by nine out of 12 home teams holding a 1-0 lead) all appeal, and those last three put together point to a 1-0 Liverpool win. Under 2.5 goals and under 1.5 goals are likely to offer the best value in the Chelsea and Arsenal ties, with the odds short but not short enough.
Overall, then, the English clubs are in a strong position and on past evidence at least three should make the quarter-finals, with a fair chance that all four will be in the last eight, as they were last season.

Comments (1)

1. Abubakar | 01 November 2009

   To galacticos, the madrid fans this is a message for u.barca is the first team to knock madrid out of the champions league so respect us.