Carling Cup / Ed Nicholson / 26 February 2010 /

Ed Nicholson gives us his best selections from this weekend's Premier League fixtures and an intriguing Carling Cup final, where assuming Wayne Rooney can be kept relatively quiet, we should have a low-scoring encounter.

Stoke v Arsenal

Stoke have beaten Arsenal twice at the Britannia stadium since winning promotion to the Premier League. Last year they surprised Arsene Wenger's side by winning 2-1, and then embarrassed an admittedly weakened Arsenal side 3-1 in the FA Cup earlier this year.

It seems that Tony Pulis has found the secret to beating Arsenal, and it seems to revolve around the same way Man Utd play them at the Emirates. Namely allow them to have the ball outside the final third and then counter attack at pace when they lose the ball. So Stoke tend to play as if they are the away team when playing the Gunners at home.

And players like Ricardo Fuller strive in this environment, while the Stoke defenders are always a threat from set pieces. There is every chance that Stoke will score, and equally likely Arsenal will score too, and while the 1-1 is possible, I reckon one side (probably Arsenal) will score twice or more. The overs therefore looks a nice bet added to the 1-1 saver.

Stoke have only failed to score in two home games this season, while Arsenal have failed to score in just three of their away matches. In total Stoke have been involved in 6 of 13 over 2.5 goal games, while Arsenal have been involved in 7 of their 13 away games. Stoke have scored 19 times at home; Arsenal 25 away.

Arsenal may have won just 2-0 against Sunderland (1-0 until 90th min penalty) at weekend but they had 10 shots on target (SOTs) and six shots off target (SOFFs).

Prior to that the Gunners had managed 6 SOTs and 8 SOFFs at Stamford Bridge - and a depleted team managed just 6 SOTs and 2 SOFFs against Stoke in the FA Cup.

Recommendation

There is no doubt in my mind that Arsenal can score on Saturday, and that they will be put under immense pressure from Stoke for a lot of the game. Over 2.5 goals with the 1-1 saver is a sensible strategy for this encounter.

1pt over 2.5 goals Stoke v Arsenal @ [1.96]
0.2pts 1-1 Stoke v Arsenal @ [8.2]

2pts Under 2.5 goals Aston Villa v Man Utd @ [1.90]

Spurs v Everton

Spurs have the firepower to score two or more goals every time they play at White Hart Lane. But, when Harry Redknapp plays important games he tends to play two holding players in central midfield allowing both wing-backs to get forward, meaning his side is never too short at the back. With that mind I still think that Spurs game against Everton on Sunday is worth a small over 2.5 goals wager. Spurs' strikers are scoring goals for fun, whilst Everton have players capable of scoring from a whole range of positions.

These sides have played three over 2.5 goal games in six years in North London - and in that time 19 goals have been scored - for an average of 3.16 goals per game.

Recommendation

1pt over 2.5 goals Spurs v Everton @ [2.06]

Aston Villa v Man Utd - Carling Cup FINAL

Finals tend to be low scoring, nervous affairs, and with the two of the three meanest defences in the Premier League due to take each other on there is only one way I would like to go here.

16 of the last 28 encounters between these sides have ended in being under 2.5 goals games - and this looks likely to be another.

This season Aston Villa have the best defensive record in the Premier League having conceded just 21 goals in 26 games, while Man Utd have conceded just 24 in 28 matches. When sides with such good defences meet - regardless of how good their goal scorers have been and how many times the team has scored, it's the defences that usually come out the best.

This season the sides have met twice already and the scores have been 1-1 at Villa Park, and that sensational 0-1 Villa victory at Old Trafford, when Gabriel Agbonlahor scored after just 21 minutes. The only slight doubt I have is that Wayne Rooney is in such fantastic form - but he can't keep on scoring goals at this rate. I feel this game is well worth a two point under 2.5 goal bet at what is a very good price in my opinion.

Recommendation

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