Carling Cup / Michael Cox / 26 February 2011 / 1

Michael Cox talks tactics, team selection and best betting oportunities ahead of Sunday's Carling Cup final.

The focus here is on Arsenal having the chance to win their first trophy since 2005, but Birmingham haven't won a major honour since 1963 - this final means a great deal to both sets of supporters.

Sadly, injury setbacks have dominated the build-up to this final for both sides. Arsenal's 1-0 midweek win over Stoke saw them robbed of both Cesc Fabregas and Theo Walcott for their Wembley trip, whilst Birmingham look set to be without centre-back Scott Dann, and former Arsenal midfielder Alex Hleb. Another former Gunner, David Bentley, is cup-tied.

Arsene Wenger will stick to his 4-2-3-1 system. Arsenal's injury problems mean that Andrei Arshavin, who has got over his recent poor run of form, will start on the left for Arsenal, with Samir Nasri likely to come infield and play the Fabregas role. With Robin van Persie set to skipper the side upfront, the final attacking position is up for grabs - it's likely to be on the right in Walcott's position (though Nasri's versatility means Wenger could change things), and whilst Tomas Rosicky is perhaps a more natural fit, the Czech's below-par performances recently means Nicklas Bendtner may get a start against the club he was on loan to in 2006/07.

Alex McLeish has a decision to make about his formation. In recent weeks, he's paired Obafemi Martins and Nikola Zigic in a 4-4-2, but in this game it wouldn't be a surprise if he opted to play a more conservative 4-5-1 formation. Lee Bowyer will probably replace Bentley and has the ability to play either as a wide player or in the centre - that will depend on the formation, with Martins probably preferred if McLeish goes 4-4-2, and Jean Beausejour more likely for a 4-5-1. The shape of Birmingham will play a part in the pattern of the game - McLeigh might want to keep things tight early on and have the option of introducing another striker, so 4-5-1 seems more appropriate.

That might mean the ball spends a lot of time in the midfield zone. Arsenal are likely to dominate possession, whilst Birmingham have caused them some problems in recent years by sitting back and defending very narrow, forcing Arsenal to go down the outside. Walcott often helps Arsenal by stretching the play and providing an outlet on the flank, but his absence means Arsenal are much more keen on working the ball through the centre of the pitch. I think this might result in a low corner count, so will be backing 9 or less corners at around [3.3].

Birmingham's main threat could come from an aerial route through Zigic. The Serb is not the best natural header of the ball, but has improved in that respect in recent weeks, and his height is always a threat. He nodded in against Arsenal earlier in the season at the Emirates and has scored two headers in the last three games. Arsenal would do well to cut off the supply to him - Sebastian Larsson's crossing is always a threat from the right, so Gael Clichy will have to stick tightly to him early on.

Also down that flank, Arshavin against Stephen Carr should be an interesting battle. Carr is a much quicker, fitter player than his age would imply, and Arshavin is notably rather slack defensively at times. Carr's first priority will be to keep Arshavin quiet, but don't be surprised to see him get forward to work 2 v 1 situations with Larsson. That might be a promising area of the pitch for Birmingham, whilst set-pieces are also likely to be utilised effectively.

Arsenal's interplay around the box will surely cause Birmingham problems, however, and their 3-0 win at St Andrews on New Year's Day was one of their most impressive performances of the season. I fancy them to score a couple here, so will also back Arsenal To Score In Both Halves at [2.5].

Recommended bets:

9 or less corners at [3.3]
Arsenal To Score In Both Halves at [2.5]

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1. Alex Gun Ham | 27 February 2011

   Arsenal is wining

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