The Betfair Contrarian: Why Aston Villa will win the Carling Cup

Carling Cup / The Betfair Contrarian / 26 February 2010 / Leave a Comment

O'Neill is a Carling Cup master

"If the pitch invasion after the semi-final win over Blackburn didn't give it away, Villa are absolutely desperate to win the Carling Cup this season. United, on the other hand, only really got interested in the semi-finals because local pride meant that they wouldn't allow Manchester City to progress at their expense."

Five reasons why Martin O'Neill's merry band of underdogs will get the glory in the Carling Cup final this Sunday

It's been a cracking decade so far for the Contrarian: the New Orleans Saints won the Super Bowl, Team GB defied all expectations by winning a rare gold medal at the Winter Olympics and, though you may not yet be convinced, England are on course to win the Six Nations.

This week's hot tip is to back Aston Villa to conquer Manchester United and win the Carling Cup at [3.0] and if there's one thing more foolish than ignoring the Contrarian right now, it's going against Martin O'Neill in that competition...

No team ever retains
Twenty years have passed since Brian Clough and Nottingham Forest became the last manager and team to retain the Carling Cup. Don't fall into the trap of thinking that Manchester United have done the hard work by reaching the final and are now well placed to break the curse in each of the last two seasons, the reigning champions have returned to Wembley to defend the crown only to be disappointed, with Chelsea losing to Tottenham Hotspur in 2008 and Spurs then paying for their inability to score from 12 yards against Manchester United last March.

Martin O'Neill is Mr Carling Cup
Some of O'Neill's career highlights have come in the League Cup, having won it twice as a player with Nottingham Forest and twice as manager of Leicester. At Filbert Street, he ended a 33-year cup drought so, Aston Villa's 14-year wait for some silverware notwithstanding, last year's forgettable Intertoto Cup triumph won't be troubling him. In fact, O'Neill has won knockout competitions almost everywhere that he's been. He led Wycombe to FA Trophy glory twice, claimed two Carling Cups as Leicester boss and then won the Scottish Cup three times and the Scottish League Cup once while north of the border with Scotland.

Aston Villa have the edge in this competition
Aston Villa have won the Carling Cup five times to Manchester United's three, despite the fact that both teams have appeared in the final on seven occasions. The sides have collided at Wembley in the competition before, back in 1994, and on that day, Villa scuppered United's bid for a domestic treble by defeating a team featuring the likes of Steve Bruce, Roy Keane, Ryan Giggs, Eric Cantona and Mark Hughes 3-1. The clubs have also locked horns in the FA Cup Final before, in 1957, and Villa came out on top then as well with a 2-1 victory.

The holders haven't beaten Villa all season
One of O'Neill's greatest achievements with Aston Villa, and it's taken him a while, is finally bringing an end to the days where United were guaranteed six points a season off the Midlanders. Prior to last seasons 0-0 draw at Villa Park, the Red Devils had won 14 straight clashes between the sides. Villa were also hugely unlucky not to leave Old Trafford last year with at least a point when Federico Macheda scored a memorable last-gasp winner. O'Neill then ended their 14-year wait for a league victory over the champions this season with a 1-0 win in Manchester, before they ground out a 1-1 draw in the return fixture last month.

Villa want it more
If the pitch invasion after the semi-final win over Blackburn didn't give it away, Villa are absolutely desperate to win the Carling Cup this season. United, on the other hand, only really got interested in the semi-finals because local pride meant that they wouldn't allow Manchester City to progress at their expense. In the round before, against Tottenham, they weren't taking it too seriously, with the likes of Ritchie De Laet, Darron Gibson and Danny Welbeck starting. Villa have fielded their strongest available team in every match and will do again on Sunday, whereas United will be prioritising tomorrows league game against West Ham, knowing that allowing Chelsea the opportunity to open up a six or seven point lead at the weekend, with just ten matches remaining, would potentially finish their title bid.