Carling Cup / Michael Lintorn / 11 January 2012 /

Michael Lintorn can't resist Manchester City at odds above evens to overcome Liverpool but doesn't expect them to be too pleased with the scoreline...

Manchester City v Liverpool, Wednesday 19:45 BST, BBC1, Match odds: Manchester City [2.04], Liverpool [4.2], The Draw [3.55]

A first home defeat of the season against Manchester United in the FA Cup on Sunday means that Manchester City enter this Carling Cup semi-final first leg on their worst run of 2011-12, having won just one of their last four games.

Making matters worse is the fact that captain and star centre back Vincent Kompany will now miss four matches, including both legs of this tie, due to his dismissal at the weekend.

Add into the mix the absence of another defender, Kolo Toure, and Yaya Toure, their most used outfield player, and you get the impression that January, the month that the Premier League leaders usually look forward to more than any other club, will be the most testing of their campaign.

Get through it still top of the table and with a Wembley date confirmed though, and a domestic double will seem very much achievable.

And it's worth noting that while Roberto Mancini's men haven't been in great form recently, the one encounter that they did manage to win was at home to Liverpool, and they did a fairly convincing job of that, strolling to a 3-0 victory.

That was the second time in succession that they beat the Reds by so comfortable a margin at the Etihad Stadium, and as they have triumphed in 28 of their last 31 games in front of their fans, odds of [2.04] on a repeat are difficult to shun.

Liverpool are [4.2] to win on the road for the tenth time this term, however eight of the previous nine came with Luis Suarez involved, the suspended Uruguayan scoring five on those away days and chipping in with a fair few assists too.

Over/under 2.5 goals

Manchester City's FA Cup exit to their neighbours ended a sequence of four straight clean sheets as hosts that was the Citizens' best of the campaign. On the whole though, shut outs have been rarer than usual, with a price perhaps being paid at the back for a more adventurous attacking outlook.

That's not to suggest that the goals that they have leaked have been costly or indicative of major defensive issues - they conceded exactly one in six of the dozen home matches that preceded the three scored by Manchester United.

It's unlikely that Liverpool will strike more than once, but in a two-legged clash that could prove enough to ultimately be decisive.

Three of the last four collisions between the pair have featured over 2.5 goals and this is [2.12] to follow suit, with odds of around [1.98] available on both teams scoring.

That occurs far more frequently at this stage of the competition than you might expect, with just three of the last ten semi-final first legs finishing without both clubs finding the net. In terms of correct score, it is [9.8] that Manchester City prevail 2-1.

Best Bet: Manchester City to win @ [2.04]
Other Recommended Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ [2.12]

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