Carling Cup / Andrew Atherley / 22 February 2012 /

Andrew Atherely explains why all the stats point to silverware for Kenny Dalglish's men on Sunday. He also explains how to find value on the short odds favourites...

Liverpool have won four of the five domestic finals they have contested since 2000 and have a strong chance of another success on Sunday in their Carling Cup clash against Cardiff.

The good news for favourite backers is that the stats point to several good alternatives to odds of [1.4] for Liverpool to get the job done in 90 minutes.

More than 20 years have passed since the last upset by a lower-league side against top-flight opposition in a Carling Cup or FA Cup final, when Ron Atkinson's Sheffield Wednesday team beat Manchester United 1-0 in the 1991 League Cup final sponsored by Rumbelows.

In the intervening years seven lower-league sides have reached a domestic final and the Premier League team has won every time - in 90 minutes on five occasions, once after extra-time and once on penalties.

Liverpool, strangely enough, have featured in three of those seven finals, which perhaps entitles them to be tagged a lucky cup team in terms of the strength of opposition they have faced. Two were won in 90 minutes but the last time they played lower-league opponents, against Birmingham in this competition in the 2001 final, they conceded a 90th-minute equaliser and were somewhat fortunate to win on penalties.

Widening the scope to include all finals featuring one of the established big four of English football (Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool), the stats are just as strongly against an upset. In the past 20 years, the big four have triumphed 18 times out of 22 (82 per cent) when faced by a team outside that group.

The superiority of the big clubs means there is a better than 50 per cent likelihood of a clean sheet for them in this type of match-up. That makes a Liverpool clean sheet and a Liverpool win to nil well worth considering, along with under 2.5 goals at [2.04].

Four of the seven domestic finals involving a lower-league side in the past 20 years have had under 2.5 goals (57 per cent), with the three exceptions all going only one goal over. In the same period, including replays, 15 out of 23 (65 per cent) featuring a big-four side against a team from outside that group have had under 2.5 goals.

A far superior match favourite is often a pointer to over 2.5 goals, although Liverpool's stats this season provide conflicting evidence, as they have had 16 out of 25 (64 per cent) under 2.5 goals in Premier League games but eight out of nine over 2.5 goals in domestic cup games (all three against lower-league opposition have had over 2.5 goals).

With so much at stake, however, finals tend to be low-scoring. Twenty-four of the past 40 domestic finals have had under 2.5 goals (60 per cent) - another indicator that it is worth going for the outsider in that market on Sunday's match.

The other bet worth considering to improve the odds is the Liverpool win-win in the half time/full time market, especially if Liverpool's goals stats in cup games this season are taken as proof of their effectiveness at ramming home their superiority against lower-league sides.

Liverpool have recorded a win-win in all three meetings with lower-league clubs in cup competitions this season, most recently Sunday's 6-1 home win over Brighton.

The seven domestic finals involving a lower-league side in the past 20 years have had a win-win for the top-flight club on four occasions and two of the three exceptions went to extra-time. Punters who fancy Liverpool for the win should certainly consider the win-win as a better-priced alternative.

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Liverpool win-win on the Half Time/Full Time
Liverpool win to nil

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