Carling Cup Final Betting: Arsenal v Birmingham

Carling Cup / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 27 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Robin van Persie can't stop scoring since returning from injury

"Tipping up van Persie to open the scoring gives me little or no pleasure but it’s hard to look beyond this man. He’ll be captaining the side, on free-kick and penalty duty and has scored 13 goals in 21 appearances since returning from injury."

Arsenal have a fantastic chance to finally win somethinng whilst Birmingham will feel that in a one-off match at Wembley it could well be their day. This should make for a good contest. Let's try to make some momey from it.

It's funny how these things go. A few years back Arsene Wenger treated this competition as a cross between an unwelcome distraction and an opportunity to blood youngsters or give a few reserves a run out. But as the trophies have dried up over the years he's fielded increasingly strong sides and he'll be treating Sunday's final as a his number one priority at the moment, such is the pressure on his side to win something, anything.

He'll be fielding his best possible eleven though that won't of course include the injured Cesc Fabregas, who very bizarrely found out he wouldn't be playing for sure after reading about it on Arsenal's official website. You would have thought someone would have told him that before the news was broken to the general public but it seems Arsenal really do like to do things a bit differently these days. Theo Walcott (who opened the scoring in their 2-1 defeat to Chelsea in the 2008 final) is also out injured, as is Thomas Vermaelen and Lukas Fabianski.

Birmingham are struggling in the league a little but there are weaker sides than them in the Premier League this year and they're unlikely to be relegated. Either way, any relegation fears are for Alex McLeish to worry about another time. This is the Blues' big day and even though most people are writing them off before a ball has been kicked in anger, they'll feel they have a very decent chance of beating the Gunners in a one-off match on neutral ground. Especially as it's the north Londoners, not them, who are under pressure to win. The impressive Scott Dann is a long-term casualty while former Arsenal man Alexander Hleb may also miss out with a knee injury.

Match Odds

I won't rule out Birmingham's chances completely but experience of huge matches counts for a lot and one side have plenty of it and the other not so much. With Robin van Persie in tremendous goalscoring form and spirits still high after that superb comeback against Barcelona, the Gunners should really win this within 90 minutes but they won't necessarily come flying out of the blocks and score early. Arsenal are a patient side who will want to enjoy some solid early possession and we may see a slightly uneventful first half hour. Maybe not what the neutral wants to see but it should give us the opportunity for an In-Play trade which will guarantee us a green book. Lay Arsenal at [1.5] pre-match with a view to backing them at around [1.75] around the 30th minute or so.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

It's hard to use stats here. There's no point looking at numbers in the league for obvious reasons and there's not much point considering how they've fared in the previous rounds as a final is a completely different ball game, so to speak. Birmingham and Arsenal's presence in recent League Cup finals have been very rare in recent times so that doesn't offer us much assistance either. It's evens the pair on this market. If Arsenal score first they're more likely to manage their lead rather than go searching for more like they do in league fixtures and with all due respect to Birmingham, if they do go behind I'm not sure they have the weapons or the belief to fight back. You'll find better bets than under 2.5 goals at [2.0] on Betfair's markets but that selection gets the nod here.

First Goalscorer/To score

Tipping up van Persie to open the scoring gives me little or no pleasure but it's hard to look beyond this man. He'll be captaining the side, on free-kick and penalty duty and has scored 13 goals in 21 appearances since returning from injury. He's not necessarily huge value at 5.0 but he's the overwhelming candidate to grab the first goal for the reasons just stated.

If you're looking for something a little more adventurous you might want to consider Alex Song at around [26.0]. The Cameroon international is a threat from corners and has recently found his way into the opponent's penalty box a lot more than in previous seasons. He's scored five times already this season.

To be shown a card

Despite the importance of the match I don't expect this to be a dirty game. No-one wants to be sent off in a Cup final and referees are perhaps a little more lenient given they're reluctant to spoil a game like this by reducing a team to ten men. Remember the reprieve Nemanja Vidic got last year. That said, Lee Bowyer often treads a fine line between what is acceptable and what isn't and should have walked when the Blues hosted Arsenal in the league just after Christmas. Back the former Leeds man to be shown a card at around [3.0].

Best bet: Back Robin van Persie to be first golascorer at [5.0]
Recommended bet: Back Lee Bowyer to be shown a card at [3.0]