Carling Cup Betting: Tottenham v Burnley

Carling Cup / Dan Fitch / 06 January 2009 / 1 Comments

With Luka Modric starting to finally exert his influence at the heart of Spurs' midfield and Pavlyuchenko back scoring, this may be a good time to be keep Spurs on-side as they host Burnley in the Carling Cup, says Dan "The Betting Man" Fitch.

Tottenham host Burnley in the first leg of the Carling Cup Semi Final on Tuesday night, with the Lancashire side looking to make Spurs the third London giant they have eliminated from the competition.

Owen Coyle's side have already beaten Chelsea and Arsenal, but will surely find it harder to prevail over Premier League opposition in a two-legged match. Tottenham will be taking this encounter very seriously, with success in the Carling Cup looking increasingly likely to be their only available route into Europe next season.

Harry Redknapp will field a full strength side and with a bit of luck, may even add some reinforcements to his squad in time for the Burnley clash. Monday's papers seem to agree that a fee has been arranged for Jermain Defoe to make a return to White Hart Lane from Portsmouth and if the deal were thrashed through in time, the England striker is not cup-tied and could be available for selection against Burnley.

Defoe would certainly improve the striking options available to Harry Redknapp, but if the move doesn't materialise, then expect Frazier Campbell to partner Roman Pavlyuchenko in attack. Darren Bent went off injured in Spurs' 3-1 FA Cup victory over Wigan and was replaced by Campbell, whose energy seems to bring the best out of Pavlyuchenko.

After Campbell had won a penalty in the second half, Pavlyuchenko coolly converted from the spot and from that moment on, looked like a different player to the one that has made a slow start to his career at Tottenham. The Russian international rounded off the scoring in injury time to grab his second goal and will be looking to take this form into the encounter with Burnley.

The first goalscorer market is not yet available at Betfair, but nearer to kick off time Pavlyuchenko should be available at around [5.0], with Campbell [7.0]. For Burnley, Martin Paterson will be priced around the [11] mark to open the scoring.

Also amongst the goals against Wigan was Luka Modric, who was employed in a central midfield role in a 4-4-2 formation, for the first time during Redknapp's reign. Modric thrived in the position and was clearly the best player on the park. Playing from deep allowed Modric to drift into the box unmarked on several occasions and the Croatian really should have scored at least another goal.

My one reservation with Modric playing in this role, is his physique (or lack of it). If he is to be playing in central midfield, he needs a defensively minded partner, who posses real strength. I'm not sure Didier Zokora is the man for this job and with Stephen Appiah said to be training with Spurs with a view to a free transfer, he may soon face competition for his spot.

Burnley drew 0-0 with QPR on Saturday, to force a home replay in the FA Cup third round. Burnley's keeper Brian Jensen was the hero of the hour, making a string of saves and one would expect him to be kept even busier at White Hart Lane.

The Clarets have lost their last 2 matches in The Championship, to Barnsley and lowly Doncaster. Despite this setback Burnley remain in fifth place and though automatic promotion to the Premier League this season seems a step too far, they could easily retain their place in the play off spots.

Defender Stephen Jordan will return for Burnley, but the injured Chris McCann, Kevin McDonald and Remco van der Schaaf, remain doubtful. For Spurs, Huddlestone will definitely be missing, with Jenas and Bent both major doubts. Ledley King will probably be rested again, allowing Dawson to partner Woodgate in the centre of defence.

Tottenham are the [1.47] favourites, with the draw at [4.6] and Burnley at [8.8]. Spurs have only lost 1 out of their last 11 cup-ties at White Hart Lane and I don't expect Burnley to make it 2 out of 12. Spurs can be backed at [2.16] to be winning at half time/full time, but if you think the game will follow the same pattern as Friday's match with Wigan, the draw/Tottenham can be backed at [4.8].

The 2.5 and the 3.5 goals barrier were broken against Wigan and over 2.5 can be backed at [1.82], with over 3.5 at [2.98]. In the correct score markets, 1-0 is available at [8.0] and 2-0 is [7.8].

Spurs are [1.27] in the To Qualify market, with Burnley priced [3.8]. In the Carling Cup winners market, Tottenham are the [2.9] second favourites, with Burnley next in the betting at [18.0].