Carling Cup / The Betfair Contrarian / 27 February 2009 / Leave a comment

On paper it looks a real case of David v Goliath with Man Utd expected to complete the first leg of a potential unprecedented quadruple. But the Betfair Contrarian doesn't believe in nailed-on wins for anyone. Here's why Spurs will lift the Carling Cup.

The Betfair Contrarian: Why Tottenham will retain the Carling Cup

Some of Spurs' performances this season have been so spineless they could soon evolve into the world's first invertebrate football team. On top of that, they are without a win in seventeen games and almost eight years against Manchester United - and that's Contrarian country. Harry Redknapp's side are a massive [5.6] to win in ninety minutes on Betfair or [3.2] to lift the trophy by any means. Here's why you should climb all over them...

Tottenham raise their game for the Big Four...

Spurs have played the Big Four sides (Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal) on seven separate occasions this season and their only defeat came against Manchester United in the FA Cup. Prior to that match Redknapp made it clear that the Premier League and Carling Cup were Tottenham's priority and controversially pledged to select a mish-mash team. Teddy Sheringham was a TV pundit for the game and claimed that Spurs looked happy to be out of the FA Cup.

...and that is even more noticeable in the Carling Cup

Since the start of 2008, Tottenham have knocked Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool out of the Carling Cup, meaning victory over Manchester United will complete a quadruple of Big Four conquests. Last January they beat their north London rivals 5-1 in the semi-final second-leg before triumphing 2-1 after extra time against Chelsea in the final. This season they thumped Liverpool 4-2 in the fourth round, marking their second win in twelve days over the then league leaders. They remain the only team to have beaten Rafael Benitez's side in ninety minutes this season.

Spurs have a superior record in Carling Cup finals...

Manchester United and Tottenham have both contested six Carling Cup finals (although never against one another) but Spurs have won twice as many as the Red Devils. Tottenham have lifted the trophy four times, falling at the final hurdle just twice, whereas Manchester United have won just twice - even Leicester City have won it more often.

...and they consistently beat Manchester United in this competition

The two Carling Cup finalists have clashed in the competition on six previous occasions and Tottenham have triumphed in five of those meetings, including all of the last four. Spurs' dominance over Manchester United in the Carling Cup is made even more remarkable by the fact Sir Alex Ferguson's side boast a 70-35 win-loss record over them in league games.

They have contrasting records at the new Wembley

Manchester United have yet to really deliver at the new Wembley, losing their first match there against Chelsea in the 2007 FA Cup Final after extra-time. Since then they have won Community Shields against Chelsea and Portsmouth in penalty shootouts but neither represented glorious triumphs. On the other hand, Wembley hosted Tottenham's Carling Cup triumph over Chelsea last season and was also the ground where Harry Redknapp beat both West Brom and Cardiff to win the 2008 FA Cup. He was beaten on penalties by Manchester United in the Community Shield but the 0-0 draw achieved over ninety minutes was still a respectable result for Portsmouth.

Tottenham want it more

Spurs will be putting out the strongest team they have available as the Carling Cup offers their only realistic route into Europe next season. In contrast, the final comes in the middle of a hectic nineteen day period for Manchester United which includes the two Champions League ties against Inter Milan, an away FA Cup quarter-final and two Premier League games, one of which is potentially their biggest of the season against Liverpool. In addition, Sir Alex Ferguson has pledged to stick with the players who took the team to the final, which would include inexperienced youngsters like Darron Gibson and Danny Welbeck.