Carling Cup Betting Preview: Watford v Spurs

Carling Cup / Alsy / 03 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

Spurs may be in trouble but Watford are really struggling - the odds suggest mismatch but in a one-off cup game, who knows? Alister Morgan looks at Wednesday night's televised Carling Cup fixture.

Spurs should spare a thought for their hosts for tonight's Carling Cup semi-final. After all, Tottenham travel to a club who might justifiably claim to be in greater turmoil. Fans of the Lilywhites are ecstatic that Harry Redknapp's steady hands are at the helm, though the club are still navigating stormy waters. The Hornets are in a different place altogether.

Watford lie two places about the drop zone in the Championship after a poor run of form that has seen three key individuals leave Vicarage Road. Firstly Life President and benefactor Elton John ended his official association with the club after decades of support. Then manager Aidy Boothroyd was sacked by Chairman Graham Simpson following Watford's slump to 21st in the Championship. In charge since 2005, Boothroyd became one of the most promising young managers around but following Watford's relegation from the Premiership he struggled with life back in the Championship.

Earlier this week Simpson resigned as Chairman following a boardroom vote of no confidence throwing the club deeper into turmoil. Before he left Simpson had appointed a new manager, former Chelsea youth-team coach, Brendan Rogers and he'll be in charge of navigating a route past the Premiership side Wednesday night. Rogers earned a 1-1 draw against Doncaster Rovers in his first fixture in charge but tonight's visitors should present a few more problems.

At the back Watford have a few injuries, but keeper Mart Poom and Captain Jay DeMerrit provide a strong defensive foundation. A lack of goals has not been one of Watford's problems (only Wolves and Reading have scored more goals at home in the Championship) but keeping them out has. Danny Shittu has never been adequately replaced but new Chelsea loan-singing, Liam Birdcutt, should help. The 19-year-old holding midfielder made his debut last weekend and won man-of-the-match plaudits for an impressive display in the Makelele role.

Upfront the ever-reliable Tommy Smith carries Watford's biggest threat. The local favourite already has 10 goals this season and Spurs will have to keep tabs on a player with a knack for turning up in the right place at the right time. To me Watford's top-scorer seems undervalued in the First Goal Scorer market. Spurs are clear favourites and Fraizer Campbell ([6.2]), Roman Pavlyuchenko ([5.6]) and Darren Bent ([5.6]) in the same market reflect that, but I'd back Smith at [10.5] on home soil.

Ledley King is likely to be rested but I don't see Redknapp taking any chances with selection. I expect Spurs to play their strongest side as Redknapp knows the Carling Cup represents his most realistic chance of silverware this season. Spurs have been revived of late but they're still only level on points with 18th-placed Sunderland but, conversely, they're three wins away from retaining the Carling Cup.

Tottenham have kept four clean sheets since Redknapp arrived and they clearly out-gun Watford in every significant department. Nevertheless this trip to Vicarage Road will not be easy against a vocal home crowd and a team with nothing to lose. All the pressure will be on the away side to make the semi-final but I just can't see Spurs losing this one. Moreover, they look a strong bet to retain the Carling Cup at [3.35] even with Manchester United waiting in the wings.

The key to a Tottenham victory is their strikeforce. At the beginning of the season it was all about the strikers who had left White Hart Lane but now Redknapp has three compelling options to choose from in attack. Factor in some stellar support from Tom Huddlestone, David Bentley and Aaron Lennon and it's hard to see how Spurs can lose.

You can back them to win a semi-final place at [1.72] but considering the firepower on display backing Over 2.5 Goals at [1.83] also looks like a good bet.