Carling Cup Betting: Pace of Young and Agbonlahor can set Villa on road to Wembley

Carling Cup / Ralph Ellis / 24 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

Martin O'Neill's rapidly improving Aston Villa will be amongst the main contenders to win this season's Carling Cup, says Ralph Ellis.

It's always amazed me when people have tried to have a snipe at Martin O'Neill's record as a manager. The usual one is: "Okay so he's done well but what's he won?" Which is a bit like the Monty Python team asking "What have the Romans done for us?".

There's successive promotions from the Conference into the third tier of League football with Wycombe. There's promotion and not just one but two League Cups with Leicester City. And, of course, assorted Scottish Premier League titles and cups with Celtic. And okay, so he lost the UEFA Cup final to Jose Mourinho's Porto but he got there, with Celtic, for heaven's sakes.

So when O'Neill says he fancies having a go at winning the Carling Cup this year with his rapidly improving Aston Villa side he's well worth listening to. The big four super powers unsurprisingly fill the top places in the betting to lift the trophy this time, with Chelsea [5.2], Manchester United [6.2], Liverpool [7.4] and Arsenal's youth team a handy [8.4] after demolishing Sheffield United last night.

Villa are currently trading at [14.0] to win the competition and [5.0] to reach the final - and first have to negotiate a tricky home tie against Queens Park Rangers this evening. Given that the club have been dumped out in the early stages against lower league teams three times in the last four seasons you'd be tempted to chase an upset and lay them at [1.22] to qualify. But given their current form to back them to win in 90 minutes at [1.47] looks very good value.

The big difficulty in these early Carling Cup games is deciding exactly what sort of team the Premier League big boys will pick when they face smaller clubs. O'Neill is making that a bit easier.

He says in this morning's papers: "I was very disappointed with myself last year when we lost to Leicester and I want to try to put that right. It was a competition we wanted to win but I made some changes that didn't really work. This club has won this cup before and we want to win it again."

That means O'Neill will stick pretty much with the side which won so comfortably at West Brom on Sunday to complete three victories in a week, and let loose the pace of Ashley Young and Gabby Agbonlahor against a Rangers defence which lost to Coventry at the weekend. Just because QPR are backed by three billionaires it's tempting to think of them as huge spenders in the Championship, but the reality is they have been building slowly and are still a fairly routine side at that level. If you want a bigger price than just the safe odds-on bets then try backing the draw at half time followed by a Villa win at [4.7].

One extra bet to look out for: O'Neill's determination to play his strongest side tonight - and Roy Keane's search for a response after Sunderland's dismal showing against Northampton last night - could make it worth laying Villa at [1.68] in Saturday's League game.

Five things you might not know about Martin O'Neill

1. Born in Kilrea, Northern Ireland, in March 1952 his middle names are Hugh Michael

2. As a teenager he played Gaelic football and won the MacRory Cup with St Malachy's college - starting a bitter dispute because he breached a rule preventing Gaelic players appearing in 'foreign sports' by also playing soccer for Distillery FC

3. He scored for Distillery against Barcelona in a UEFA Cup tie in 1971

4. His fascination with big criminal trials is well known - but he never actually finished his law degree because he left University when he signed for Nottingham Forest as a player.

5. His management career began not at Wycombe but at Grantham Town and then Shepshed Charterhouse.