Carling Cup Betting: Nerves means goals as Spurs carry on up the Tyne

Carling Cup / Mike Norman / 23 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

This one is impossible to call but by backing the goals to fly in we should make enough money to buy Newcastle and install Cocco the Clown as manager, says Mike Norman.

When last month's Carling Cup draw pitted Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur the Sky Sports cameras were quickly reserved for a long trip to St James Park on the night of Wednesday 24th September.

The anticipation was probably a clash between two top six Premiership teams, a passionate Geordie crowd fully behind their club, and a loyal Juande Ramos trying to outwit King Kevin Keegan in his place of worship. Well you can forget all of that!

What Sky Sports have now got is far better. Statistically, this fixture brings together the two worst teams in the Premiership, with winless Spurs currently occupying bottom place in the league, one place behind Wednesday's opponents. It has Juande Ramos fighting for his job or, if you believe newspaper reports, ready to jump ship and return to Spain. It has managerless Newcastle in absolute turmoil both on and off the pitch, and the club's fans baiting for Mike Ashley's blood.

It has even been rumoured that the current situation at Newcastle is going to be made into a 'Carry On' film, with their stadium being renamed Sid James Park. Part of the script was leaked to the press and it reads that a baby boy will be born in the film and given the name Keegan - that way the parents know he will walk within eight months.

Joking aside, this Carling Cup match is hugely important to both clubs as they seek to turn around their fortunes. The Match Odds market has Newcastle at [2.92], Tottenham at [2.62] and The Draw at [3.45]. Both teams are available at [1.77] in the To Qualify market.

Personally I think this match is impossible to call. You can make an argument for Newcastle yet you can just as easily make an argument against them - the same can be said about Spurs. Confidence in backing either team to win has to be tainted; Newcastle because of their off-field problems and how it seems to have affected the players, Tottenham because of their current form and how drab they look in front of goal without Robbie Keane, Jermaine Defoe and Dimitar Berbatov.

For these reasons I'd much rather have a bet in some of the markets in which I have more confidence. Remember, you don't always have to have a bet on who will win the match.

One market I'm very interested in is the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market, though I have to admit to being gutted at the current price of just [1.91] about Over 2.5 Goals. I was rather hoping for around [2.4] considering how few goals these teams have scored this season. But Betfair punters have obviously latched onto the fact that the last five meetings between these two teams have resulted in 22 goals being scored, and with two nervy teams likely to make mistakes, goals are clearly expected.

'Over 3.5 Goals' is available at [3.1] - remember, this has been the outcome the last five times these teams have met. If you're finding it hard to see where the goals will come from you can get matched at [1.42] for 'Under 3.5 Goals' and at [2.04] for 'Under 2.5 Goals'.

A quick glance at the time of the goals conceded for each team this season shows that Newcastle have conceded twice as many in the first half as they have in the second (six as opposed to three), whereas it's the complete opposite for Spurs (two in the first half, five in the second). This information makes Tottenham/Draw ([17.5]) and Tottenham/Newcastle ([36.0]) appealing to small stakes in the Half Time/Full Time market.

Continuing the 'form line' means of landing a decent bet in this match, it's worth pointing out that Newcastle have beaten Spurs 3-1 in their last three meetings at St James Park - a repeat on Wednesday is available at [28.0].

Spurs to be leading at half time, Newcastle to storm back and win 3-1 - all our bets landed and we'll have enough cash to buy the stricken North East club. Then we can have a say in who becomes the next manager - Coco the Clown seems an appropriate choice right now, but it's that man Kevin Keegan who heads the market at [2.82], ahead of Gus Poyet ([8.8]) and three men trading around the [18.0] mark, namely Steve Bruce, Alan Shearer and Gerard Houllier.