Carling Cup Betting: Manchester United v Manchester City

Carling Cup / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 26 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Carlos Tevez's goals and subsequent remarks about Gary Neville could lead to tempers flaring in the second leg

"There were four bookings shown last Wednesday and the man in charge for the second leg (Howard Webb) averages the same four this season but there are reasons to assume there will be more this time round. The fact it’s the return leg means it matters more and when this is the case there is that extra little bit of commitment to put it nicely, or needle to tell it like it is."

When these two sides met last week it was a great game of football and this could well turn out to be another. City look over-priced but the strongest betting selection for this match lies with the bookings, says Jamie Pacheco.

It's a shame that all the talk in the aftermath of last weeks' Carling Cup first leg between these two was all about quotes, misquotes, finger gestures and accusations because it took the gloss off what was a cracking game of football. And in the process it confirmed quite a few things we already suspected: Man Utd are over-reliant on Wayne Rooney's goals, Carlos Tevez is in the form of his life and this Man City side no longer has an inferiority complex as regards their city rivals. It's one thing to nick a goal and protect your lead as Burnley, Aston Villa and Leeds have all done this season, it's something else to actually come from a goal down against Sir Alex Ferguson's lot and win the game.

John O'Shea, Nemanja Vidic and Owen Hargreaves remain sidelined for United but Rio Ferdinand will definitely be available even if he does receive a suspension for his altercation with Craig Fagan on Saturday, for which he has been charged by the FA with violent conduct - any suspension he might receive would start this Sunday. All of which means Ferguson has almost his full squad available and it's very unlikely he'll be picking anything other than his strongest XI. For City, Joleon Lescott, Wayne Bridge and Roque Santa Cruz remain out injured, new boy Patrick Vieira still hasn't recovered from a calf strain and Emmanuel Adebayor is on compassionate leave. Robinho will probably be in the squad but any participation is likely to be very limited after a series of indifferent performances; a loan move to a Brazilian club in the transfer window is seemingly the most viable option. On the plus side for City, Kolo Toure is back in contention after the Ivory Coast's shock exit against Algeria at the African Cup Of Nations.

My first impressions as far as the betting is concerned is that Manchester City look a big price at [6.0]. Either side of United's Carling Cup defeat were 3-0 and 4-0 wins in the league which suggest good form but scratch beneath the surface a little and those wins aren't quite as impressive as they might at first seem. They were at home on both occasions, the two sides they beat are both odds-on for relegation and of those seven goals four were scored in the last ten minutes of the match, which suggests a combination of fatigue and a desperate attempt to win the match by their opponents were more the cause of the goals than any Man Utd master class. More significantly, Rooney scored five of them and created another which further confirms their excessive dependence on the former Everton man. He can't carry on putting in these sort of performances game in game out and this could be the match he has a bad day at the office and that the side realise they have no real Plan B. On Betfair's main market, the value lies with the [6.0] City win.

These two sides went into the break level last time out, Man Utd have started matches slowly as we've seen above and Roberto Mancini knows that a draw will be more than good enough to see his side book a Wembley date with those Aston Villa boys. All of which suggests the half-time draw may be worth a small interest at odds of [2.4].

My final selection lies in the bookings odds market. There were four shown last Wednesday and the man in charge for the second leg (Howard Webb) averages the same four this season but there are reasons to assume there will be more this time round. The fact it's the return leg means it matters more and when this is the case there is that extra little bit of commitment to put it nicely, or needle to tell it like it is. Love him or hate him, club captain Gary Neville is a very well-respected player in the club amongst his team-mates and Carlos Tevez's comments that he was a "boot licker" and "moron", which may or may not have been lost in translation, won't have gone down particularly well. Neville himself may not feature from the start but the bad blood will be very much there on the pitch for all to see and tempers may boil over; and that's even without mentioning the name of agent provocateur supreme Craig Bellamy. I'd be amazed if there weren't at least five bookings (or a red and two bookings) in the match so make the [1.55] on the bookings odds market your main selection.