Carling Cup / Tareq Quiroz / 06 January 2009 / Leave a comment

In an age when the so-called Big Four appear to view this competition as an unwanted distraction, Man Utd find themselves at the semi-final stage and face Derby County away from home in the first leg. The stage may well be set for unsettled Man Utd forward Carlos Tevez to shine, says Tareq Quiroz.

Cup fever swept across the country at the weekend as we witnessed a feast of end to end cup action. There is nothing like the feeling of a cup tie when both teams go flat out for the win that sets them one step closer to the hallowed turf of Wembley. That is still some way off in the FA Cup but that is not the case for those left in the Carling Cup. We have reached the semi-final stage and the four remaining teams can almost touch the final. The second of this week's semis pits the favourites for the cup against the rank outsiders, but hey ,that's what cup football is all about.

It is Derby v Man Utd and it won't take an expert to work out that United are hot favourites. Understandably so when you consider their pedigree. However, this is cup football and anything can happen. In many ways it is a shame that this competition feels the need to make the semi-final a two legged affair. I don't think it is at all necessary and certainly it doesn't aid the chances of the smaller teams should they get this far.

This is a Derby team that has been in disarray for well over a season now and looking at the team you can see why. It is no surprise they struggled in the Premier League and they are not fairing awfully well in the Championship either. On paper their win over Forest Green on Saturday in the FA Cup was a close shave with utter embarrassment but now I feel it is actually something they will take confidence from. Anytime you come from two down to win a game you have done very well, especially away from home. Villa, Everton and Blackburn will all testify that winning away at lower and non-league teams is tricky and a single goal victory is all you need.

A quick peek at the Match Odds market shows Man Utd trading at [1.51]. If this were a straight out one match cup tie then I would suggest that price is just about right. However, you do have to take into account that should they not be in front in the final quarter of the match they probably won't be busting a gut to take a lead to Old Trafford. At those odds I would most certainly be a layer with a view to trading should you feel the time is right.

Man Utd are clearly blessed with a strong enough squad to deal with all these extra games so expect them to put out a team similar to that fielded against Southampton on Sunday. One player missing on Sunday was Carlos Tevez but you can expect him to play some part on Wednesday night. Often the player overlooked as the media concentrate on the likes of Ronaldo, Rooney and Berbatov but the little Argentinean has a habit of scoring important goals.

Given the opportunity he will be the man the Derby defenders will have to keep the closest eye on. Indeed it is defence I feel Derby will be most concerned about and as such I don't envisage a high scoring encounter. The Over/Under 2.5 Goals market has an even money look about it but I am definitely on the side of the unders. I don't see many goals in this and at the current odds of [2.0] I am definitely a backer of Under 2.5 Goals.

The Correct Score market has a fairly unusual look to it with the favourite being the Any Unquoted runner. At current odds of [7.0] I think this is far too short and if you so inclined to lay at those kinds of odds then this is the time to do it. I really can't see United going for the jugular in this one and would be very surprised to see them put the minimum requirement of four goals past Derby to get the Any Unquoted up. If you fancy a dabble at slightly bigger odds then it might be worth a small punt on a surprise 1-0 win to Derby at odds of [21.0].

Temporary Derby boss Chris Hutchings will be hoping for some more cup magic for his team on Wednesday night and with United sure to want to get to Wembley they are going to need plenty of it. The League Cup is a competition that Man Utd have somewhat surprisingly only won twice but they are currently as short as [1.69] in the outright Winner market. Again a lay in my opinion although you can be sure that Sir Alex Ferguson will be all too well aware of the history and will be desperate for a third win in this competition.