Carling Cup / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 27 August 2009 / Leave a comment

Manchester City want to win the Carling Cup, make no mistake about it. So they'll be fielding a strong side for this one and should book their place in the next round but the best bet lies with over 2.5 goals, says Jamie Pacheco.

"When Joleon Lescott has settled at the heart of City’s defence they will be tougher to score against but until that happens they do look vulnerable and with their cavalier approach of “we’ll score more than you”, it should pay to side with over 2.5 goals at 1.78 tonight and at similar prices on the same outcome in their next few matches."

If this match had been played a couple of years ago it would have been a run-of-the-mill Carling Cup tie between a lower mid-table Premier League side and a solid Championship outfit. An own goal in extra time would probably have settled it for the home side and Joey Barton would have been sent off for something or other.

In 2009 it's a different story however, and to a side like Crystal Palace, hosting Manchester City in a Carling Cup tie is not far off playing Manchester United or Chelsea. After all, there's isn't a gulf in quality between the players they have and those that play their football at Old Trafford or Stamford Bridge, the only difference is that City are at the start of a journey and are still without a trophy since the 1976 League Cup.

I've written this week about Mark Hughes' desire to get silverware in the cabinet as soon as possible and though this is the least glamorous of the competitions, winning it would be proof that they are on the right track.

Hughes must try to keep his large squad happy and though the backbone should remain a few of the key players will be rested. Emmanuel Adebayor and Robinho will probably be kept on the bench unless City find themselves in a spot of bother, which could mean starts for Martin Petrov and Craig Bellamy; hardly poor understudies as these two would start for most Premier League sides. One of Stephen Ireland or Gareth Barry may also make way for Nigel De Jong.

For Crystal Palace, keeper Julian Speroni might miss out with a throat injury sustained against Ipswich but other than that Neil Warnock should field his strongest possible side.

Fans of odds-on shots will see the [1.53] on Manchester City as a tempting price given the difference in class between the two sides but Crystal Palace can pull off shock results on their day, such as the 3-1 away win at Roy Keane's Ipswich, many people's tip for promotion. This is after all a side managed by a man who despite being relegated in heartbreaking circumstances with Sheffield United a few seasons ago, still managed to beat Arsenal on home turf.

A better option is to turn your attentions to the over/under 2.5 goals market. Palace matches have finished "unders" in two from four so far in the league as have both of Manchester City's two Premier League encounters. But their recent game at home to Wolves could easily have finished with six goals in it rather than Adebayor's solitary strike, with the Togolese striker missing a hatful of chances and Shay Given making a couple of superb saves at the other end. When Joleon Lescott has settled at the heart of City's defence they will be tougher to score against but until that happens they do look vulnerable and with their cavalier approach of "we'll score more than you", it should pay to side with over 2.5 goals at [1.78] tonight and at similar prices on the same outcome in their next few matches.

The first goalscorer market is probably best left alone altogether, or at least until the starting line-up is announced but there may be a couple of good options in the "to score" market. That man Bellamy has learnt that he's better at proving people wrong with his feet than his mouth and will be desperate to score tonight in order to make Hughes think twice about his team selection for when they travel to Portsmouth on Sunday. Back the fiery Welshman to score at anytime at [3.0] providing he starts and save a couple of quid for Stephen Ireland too. Alongside Richard Dunne and Micah Richards the free-scoring midfielder is the only player to have survived from the previous era at the Eastlands despite the influx of world-class midfielders and should be available at around the 4.0 mark.