Carling Cup Betting: Blackburn v Aston Villa

Carling Cup / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 14 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Richard Dunne is likely to be a key figure for Villa

"Richard Dunne features in two of my recommended bets. No stranger to the ref's notebook, he could be worth backing at around [3.5] to be shown a card but could also be worth a small interest in the first goalscorer market at a huge price of [29.0]."

Rovers are in a desperate run of form with no win in their last 11 results - they'll be hyped for this match but Villa should have too much in the tank. Jamie Pacheco looks at the betting ahead of Thursday night's Carling Cup semi

Aston Villa's 3-1 win over Blackburn in the FA Cup a couple of weeks ago wasn't a good advert for the world's oldest football competition. Mind you, it wasn't a particular good advert for football in general with key players rested, half-baked challenges and the feeling that this wasn't one of the more important matches of a long season.

Thursday nights' Carling Cup semi-final first leg is another story though. Should Blackburn or Villa be beaten in the final against Manchester City or Manchester United they won't get a place in the Europa League next season but that's something to worry about further down the line. Either of these two will fancy their chances in a one-off final and it will certainly be a day for the players, management and fans to look forward to.

Right, now that we've established that both teams are desperate to make the final, let's go about finding the best bets from tonight's match. It's difficult to make an argument for backing Blackburn at [3.2]. They're winless in their last 11 league and cup matches, the last of which was a 4-1 Monday night mauling at the hands of Manchester City. They have won just once in their last eight attempts against tonight's opponents but that was earlier this season thanks to a David Dunn injury-time penalty.

Rovers are also without El Hadji-Diouf who is suspended (love him or hate him is an important and experienced player for Sam Allardyce), the injured Jason Roberts and possibly also Benni McCarthy who can be petulant but on his day is one of the best finishers in the country. You won't get rich laying Blackburn at [3.2] but your money should be safe.

Despite all four of Blackburn's matches having at least three goals in them, I fancy this to be a low-scoring affair with the home team deprived of two (potentially three) of their best attackers. There is also a tendency for teams to be quite cautious in first legs. The [10.5] on 0-0 could be a major player in this match and I'd cover that with a 0-1 at [9.0] - this is the sort of match where Villa could make a smash-and-grab effort similar to that produced at Old Trafford a few weeks back.

Readers of previous previews will know how impressed I've been with Richard Dunne this season. Whether his form has been down to relishing a new challenge after perhaps going a bit stale at Manchester City, the management of Martin O'Neill or a greater freedom without the burden of captaining the side is a moot point but Villa fans will see him as one of the best value-for-money signings of the season. And Dunne features in my next two recommended bets. No stranger to the ref's notebook, he could be worth backing at around [3.5] to be shown a card but could also be worth a small interest in the first goalscorer market at a huge price of [29.0].

Best Bets: Lay Blackburn at [3.2]; back Richard Dunne to be booked at [3.5]; back Dunne to score at [29.0]