1st ODI Betting Pakistan v England: New trial by spin

Pakistan v England / Ed Hawkins / 12 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

The supremely talented Umar Akmal is one of the players covered by the "any other batsman" runner

"Before considering backing Alastair Cook’s team we would like to see evidence that they can counter Pakistan’s spin"

Ed Hawkins has all the stats and analysis ahead of the first match in Abu Dhabi tomorrow

Pakistan
The 'hosts' could launch an army of spinners against England following the tourists' poor performance against twirl in the Test series.

Saeed Ajmal and Abdur Rehman could be joined by Shahid Afridi, whose variations are potent in this format, plus there are other spin options in Mohammad Hafeez and Imran Farhat. Shoaib Malik, the off-spinning allrounder, returns to the squad while Umar Gul and Wahab Riaz are the likely pace pairing.

England
Stuart Broad, Jonathan Trott, Kevin Pietersen and Monty Panesar were unhurt after a taxi they were travelling in had to stop suddenly after its bonnet flew up, obscuring the driver's view.

Jos Buttler, the highly-rated Somerset batsman, is expected to miss out after injuring a hand in the nets. Buttler needed stitches when he split the webbing on his left hand. Ravi Bopara, the patient tourist, should play in his place.

Tim Bresnan returns following his injury lay-off. Bresnan played in the warm-up match against England Lions, taking one for 23. Steven Finn looks to have bowled himself into a berth with three for 28 and although Jade Dernbach also took three wickets, the Middlesex man should pip him for the final fast-bowling slot.

Venue and conditions
The Sheikh Zayed Stadium in Abu Dhabi has hosted 17 ODIs, all under lights, but there is no discernible toss bias with a nine-eight split in favour of the side batting first. The average first-innings score in those matches is 251. Pakistan have a good record at this ground, winning ten from those 17.

Match odds
If you missed our series preview, you can read it here. It makes for grim reading for England supporters, largely because of a poor record in Asian conditions. England have won just 12 of 38 ODIs in Asia. It is a stat worth repeating.

Pakistan are as short as [1.78] to take honours in the first game with England [2.28]. Before considering backing Alastair Cook's team we would like to see evidence that they can counter Pakistan's spin.

Moving up Kevin Pietersen to the position as an opener is not a bad idea to protect their supposed stellar performer from spin, but don't be surprised to see Pakistan open the bowling with Ajmal from one end.

As if twirl does not terrify enough, England appear to have a potential problem in the middle order. Craig Kieswetter, a pinch hitter, is now expected to do the job of a finisher, or a nudger and nurdler in these conditions. It a potentially stupefying move.

England's best chance is to bat first without the pressure of a chase and hope that Stuart Broad and Bresnan, impressive performers with the ball, can trouble Pakistan.

Top Pakistan batsman
Misbah-ul-Haq top scored for Pakistan last time at this venue with 66 against Sri Lanka. He is [5.10]. Umar Akmal, Pakistan's best batsman in ODis in recent times, also scored a fifty in that game. He is [3.55] under Any Other, which includes Afridi and Malik. Not a bad wager.

Top England batsman
Jonathan Trott [4.70], Alastair Cook [4.60] and Eoin Morgan [5.10] are England's best hopes of countering Pakistan's squeeze, although Morgan was in poor nick in the Test series. Pietersen is [4.40] favourite.

Recommended bet

Back Any Other top Pakistan batsman @ [4.6]