Athletics / Jack Houghton / 07 March 2012 /

Although the broadcasters will be focusing on the fortunes of Farah and Ennis this weekend, Istanbul will tell us little about London 2012. And a good job too, as both Brits are vulnerable, writes Jack Houghton.

When Channel Four begins its extensive coverage of the World Indoor Athletics Championships at 7.00am (GMT) on Friday morning, most British track and field fans will likely be looking for clues as to how two of our main Olympic hopes - Mo Farah and Jess Ennis - are shaping up in preparation for London 2012.

And this will almost certainly be a central theme of the weekend's broadcast. Which is strange really, because short of one the duo sustaining a career-ending injury in Istanbul, little will happen - win or lose - that will give us any sort of clue as to their likely success in August.

The main reason for this is that both athletes are competing in events which bear little resemblance to what they will be targeting during the outdoor season.

Take Mo Farah. His best chance of success this summer will likely come in the 10,000m, and yet this weekend he will be racing over 3,000m, on a tight track that will favour those athletes who possess the most tactical speed.

Whilst this doesn't automatically preclude Farah from picking up some early-season silverware, I would be wary of supporting him at what will likely be an unwarranted short price. Although - when beating Choge over 1,500m in January - he demonstrated the ability to win over a shorter distance, he was subsequently beaten by Kipchoge in Birmingham over two miles, and remains vulnerable to a host of athletes who he would more easily have the measure of during the outdoor season.

Chief among these rivals in Istanbul will be Bernard Lagat. The previous outdoor World Champion at both 1,500m and 5,000m, and twice the winner of the 3,000m at the World Indoor Championships, the 37-year-old is unlikely to be getting any better in his advancing years, but probably still has enough tactical speed and nous to beat Farah under these conditions.

And Lagat certainly comes into the event in top form: he outsmarted Farah's training partner, Galen Rupp, in the American trials; and regained the US indoor mark for 5,000m at the Millrose Games in February. I see Farah as no better than a [3.00] shot this weekend, and will be laying him at any price under [2.50].

Meanwhile Ennis finds herself competing not in the heptathlon - which will be her target at the Olympics - but in the indoor equivalent: the pentathlon. If anything, Ennis is probably better suited to the indoor competition, as it omits the javelin, which is undoubtedly Ennis's biggest weakness outdoors.

The competition is being billed as a rematch between Ennis and Chernova, the Russian who beat Ennis at the World Championships last year (as predicted here), but without that all-important javelin, it is unlikely that Chernova will be able to repeat the victory in Istanbul this weekend.

Instead, Ennis's biggest threat is likely to be another Russian, Ekaterina Bolshova. Even ardent athletics' fans (and I've asked a few) are at a bit of a loss as to where she has come from, but a score approaching 4,900 in Moscow in February puts her within striking distance of Ennis, and she is an athlete worth supporting in an event where Ennis is likely to be underpriced.

Recommended Bets:
Lay Mo Farah in 3,000m at any price under [2.50].
Back Ekaterina Bolshova in Pentathlon at any price over [5.0].

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