Athletics / Jack Houghton / 28 August 2011 /

Athletics championships pose punters a problem. With a plethora of short-priced favourites, it's always hard to separate the genuine sporting titan from the overhyped chancer. During the nine days of World Championship action in Daegu, Jack Houghton tells us which skinny ones to believe in, and which to beware of. And having already told us to avoid Usain Bolt and Mo Farah, perhaps we should start listening...

Renaud Lavillenie - Men's Pole Vault - BELIEVE
I was at the Olympics in 2008 and saw a man walking along with a pole on his shoulder. I went to him and said, "Are you a pole-vaulter?" He said, "No, I'm German, how did you know my name was Vaulter?"

One of those at the forefront of a resurgence in French athletics, Lavillenie looks good value at [1.72] to take gold in Daegu. The then 22-year-old took bronze in Berlin in 2009, and has subsequently burgeoned into a world leader in this event, setting a monstrous indoor personal best of 6.03m during the European Indoor Championships earlier in the year, a clearance that puts him third in the list of all-time pole-vaulters. He's consistently bested his opponents on the grand prix circuit this year, recording four of the five best vaults of the season, and he will need to seriously underperform to get beaten here. There are plenty of examples, of course, of vaulters choking on the big occasion (a more technical event it is impossible to find), but the absence of reigning champion Steve Hooker from the final (who failed to qualify) will make this much easier for Lavillenie.

Jess Ennis - Heptathlon - BEWARE
Call me a miserable old goat, but the hullaballoo that surrounds Jessica Ennis annoys me somewhat. Yes, she's a good athlete, with lots of potential, but in terms of Heptathlon achievement, she is currently benefitting from an especially weak period in the event, in much the same way that Denise Lewis did a few years ago. Ennis' personal best points total only places her fourteenth on the all-time list, which means that, amidst all the hype behind her bid for an Olympic title next year, she will be vulnerable to a younger athlete who has yet to get it together on the world stage. That athlete may well be Tatyana Chernova. Two years' younger than Ennis, Chernova set a new personal best in Kladno in June, only 50 points behind Ennis personal best. To put that in context, 50 points equates to a little over two seconds in the 800m, and there's no way I want to be taking [1.57] about Ennis, when she has so little in hand of a younger, improving athlete.

Recommendations:
5pts back Renaud Lavillenie at [1.72] in men's pole vault.
2pts lay Jessica Ennis at [1.57] in women's heptathlon.

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