NFL Post-Season Betting: What are the seeds of play-off success?

Romilly Evans
03 January 2013

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Romilly Evans examines the rankings for the NFL play-offs and wonders if the stats will bear them out

"Mark Twain was right: facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable"

Rankings are there for a reason. That said, any seeding system - by its very nature - can only be premised on past performance. It cannot foretell what is to come. And this glaringly obvious observation has been eloquently demonstrated by the NFL play-offs, where many prominent seeds have fallen by the wayside time and time again along the years.

But a journalist waxing predictable about the glorious unpredictability of sport is about as insightful and rare as a comedian talking about the tears of a clown. So, in order to avoid a similar fate, I'll try and restrict my reflections to the salient statistics for the dog-eat-dog landscape of play-off country.

In the post-season, a high seeding affords the leading four teams in each conference homefield advantage and even a bye week in which to rest their weary limbs, while the lesser light contest Wildcard Weekend.

Home games are undeniably a huge advantage in the NFL. Both stats and theory bear this out. And so does the narrower frame of play-off history, where 66% of home sides have prevailed in their opening matches (88 games) since the current 12-team format was introduced in 1990.

Still, while all four home teams were successful in the 2011 Wildcard Round, three of the four away sides defied the stats in 2010. Mark Twain was right: facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable.

So here are a few sturdier numbers which should inform your punting pointers (again, since 1990)...

• No AFC No.5 seed has ever made it to the Super Bowl. That's bad news for this year's Indianapolis Colts.

• Only two out of 16 NFC No.4 seeds have won their Divisional game. Which means the Washington Redskins' post-season stay could be short-lived.

And if you're more interested in this week's Wildcard Round...

• The AFC No.3 seed is 78% likely to win their Wildcard game. So Texans fans can put the champagne on ice.

• While in the NFC, the No.4 seed is deemed 73% likely to prevail in their opening match. So it's good and bad news for the Skins.

Or if you're looking further down the road to the Super Bowl...

• Beware the top dogs.

In the past four years alone, five No.1 seeds have lost their play-off openers. And 2009 is the only time since 1993 when both No. 1 seeds (AFC and NFC) have made it to the Super Bowl. This year's pre-eminent pair of the Denver Broncos and the Atlanta Falcons should accordingly take note. More recently, there have been eight instances since 2000, when one of these top seeds has crashed out early doors, while the other has wound up as the losing Super Bowl finalist.

• 2011: the No. 1 Green Bay Packers lose the Divisional game, the No. 1 New England Patriots lose the Super Bowl.

• 2007: the No. 1 Dallas Cowboys lose the Divisional game, the No. 1 New England Patriots lose the Super Bowl.

• 2006: the No. 1 San Diego Chargers lose the Divisional game, the No. 1 Chicago Bears lose the Super Bowl.

• 2005: the No. 1 Indianapolis Colts lose the Divisional game, the No. 1 Seattle Seahawks lose the Super Bowl.

• 2004: the No. 1 Pittsburgh Steelers lose the Conference game, the No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles lose the Super Bowl.

• 2002: the No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles lose the Conference game, the No. 1 Oakland Raiders lose the Super Bowl.

• 2001: the No. 1 Pittsburgh Steelers lose the Conference game, the No. 1 Rams lose the Super Bowl.

• 2000: the No. 1 Tennessee Titans lose the Divisional game, the No. 1 Giants lose the Super Bowl.

Whichever way you cut the statistical deck, though, it's an inevitable conclusion that Wildcard Weekend (formerly known as Walkover Weekend) is no longer the province of uncompetitive match-ups. In fact, in five of the last six Super Bowls, at least one finalist was a protagonist of the Wildcard Round.

The seeds of doubt have once again been sown. My, isn't sport gloriously unpredictable?