Atlanta Falcons @ LA Rams: Ryan and Co can thrive with the Wildcard pressure off

Romilly Evans
07 January 2018

Battering Rams: Stopping Todd Gurley will be key to an Atlanta victory

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

Romilly Evans expects last year's Super Bowl chumps to come out fighting like champs, as Matt Ryan and Julio Jones bid to prove they still make for a dangerous Wildcard outfit...

Back Atlanta Falcons (+5.5) to win on the Match Handicap @ 1.991/1 or better

Back Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) to win on the First Half Points Spread @ 1.9210/11 or better

Back Over 20.5 Atlanta Points @ 1.9110/11 or better

Back J.Jones to score First / Anytime Touchdown @ 11.010/1 or better

Atlanta Falcons @ LA Rams
Start-time: Sunday, 00:15
TV: Live on Sky Sports Action

Matty Ice can rediscover his composure to begin the postseason with a win

Make no mistake, for sheer bloody-minded competitiveness and entertainment value, this is likely the match-up of Wildcard Weekend. And while Matt Ryan and his Atlanta Falcons have a long road ahead before they can collectively lay their Super Bowl ghosts to rest, I say last season's MVP quarterback gets things rolling here with a win against the odds.

At the season's outset, the Vegas line would've made the LA Rams one-touchdown underdogs against Atlanta, even at home. However, the rehoused Rams have reinvented themselves this year as some very unchristian hosts at the The Coliseum, chiefly under the guidance of second-season QB Jared Goff and RB Todd Gurley, who has scored a league-leading 19 touchdowns in 15 games this term.

However, while the versatile Gurley would've doubtless won the NFL's regular season rushing title, had he been employed less sparingly, I believe there is a chink in Goff's armour. Granted, though, he has thrown for more touchdowns and fewer interceptions over the current campaign than Matty Ice! That said, Goff's issue is pressure, and this Atlanta D will bring it in newtons. Indeed, it seems innovative opposing schemes can throw Goff off his game and revert him to the fledgling rookie star he essentially is. He panics, struggles to communicate with his coaches in the sidelines, and causes delay-of-game penalties or blows unnecessary timeouts. In play-off country, such mistakes can be magnified. And the magnitude of this game (a late-night primetime offering) won't help.

For while Goff is busy building his own legend in LA, it's difficult to resist the urge to prick a bubble reputation. And Atlanta's old hands have the cynical playbook at their disposal to stop him. And if you can stop Goff, you can more easily slow Gurley.

On the other side of the ball, the Falcons' running game remains dependable. Instead, it's Ryan and his veteran corps of receivers who have underwhelmed this year, while the Rams' youthful wideouts have exceeded expectations. Anticipate a reversal of those roles during the wee hours of Saturday night, though, especially after Mohamed Sanu finally got his act together with a pivotal performance in Week 17 against Carolina. In a must-win game, he snaffled seven of 11 rapiers from Ryan for 71 yards, and his star is definitely on the rise at the right time.

Equally importantly, when Sanu gets loose, this then frees up that five-time Pro Bowler Julio Jones. No player in the NFL has accounted for a bigger cut of their side's receiving yards (a fag paper shy of 45%) this year, and JJ is finally rid of the ankle and rib injuries that have hampered him as recently as midweek. He can pick up his usual TD pace here (his one missing trick thus far) after no end-zone trips in the Falcons' past five games.

Indeed, while anyone can feel unappreciated from time to time, only the climate knows what it like to be Jones. When JJ doesn't find pay dirt, it's like a rainy day in the midst of a dependably upbeat LA summer: everyone moans about it. I say this is where JJ steps up to find the separation from coverage - and reminds everyone not to take him for granted. Fast approaching his 29th birthday, Jones won't be at the peak of his towering physical powers much longer. Ryan should catch him while he can.

More generally, Atlanta are 12-5 over their last 17 on games on the road, and will enjoy the relative silence of The Coliseum, whose attendance was just 26th in the league in 2017 (with a max attendance of 65,000). Rowdy home crowds won't come more unobtrusive when Ryan goes to work. The Falcons, the wildcard outfit in this encounter, are ninth in the NFL in mileage allowed per game (318 yards) as well as rushing yards allowed (104 yards). They rank a handy 12th in the league for passing yards permitted, too, at 214 yards per outing.

So, in short, this could prove a mismatch of wills and temperaments. The Rams have the youth and talent, but the Falcons have the experience and big-match know-how. It may be the first home play-off game in 24 years for the city of Los Angeles, but the hometown faithful could soon be left wondering why they bothered showing up.

Recommended bets

Back Atlanta Falcons (+5.5) to win on the Match Handicap @ 1.991/1 or better
Back Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) to win on the First Half Points Spread @ 1.9210/11 or better
Back Over 20.5 Atlanta Points @ 1.9110/11 or better
Back J.Jones to score First / Anytime Touchdown @ 11.010/1 or better