Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts: Hosts can beat handicap in low scoring encounter

Jacoby Brissett is playing well for the Colts
Jacoby Brissett is playing well for the Colts

Mike Carlson looks back at yet another unpredictable Sunday and picks out his best bets for the Monday night Sky game as the Titans visit the Colts...

"7.5 is a pretty big line for a team with offensive questions, and I'd probably like the Colts + 7.5 AT 10/11. I like the under 48 at 10/11 better than that."

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Tuesday, 01:30
Live on Sky Sports Action

Well, Sunday was a tough day for everyone. If you know anyone who had a fourfold on the Dolphins winning in Atlanta, the Bears winning in Baltimore, the Steelers winning in Kansas City and the Giants - The GIANTS! - winning in Denver, well, don't buy that bridge he's offering to sell you. Or maybe you had the Lions and Saints going over, say, 88 points?

Mariota injury will hurt Titans

Monday offers the chance to try to claw back some profit or at least respectability. Since I'm also picking all games straight up, I need quite a bit of the latter. On Friday I picked the Titans, but that was based on early reports Marcus Mariota would play at quarterback.

Mariota suffered a hamstring injury, and missed one week; he was originally projected to miss between two and four. He could be fine, or he could be wrapped up and hobbling, in which case his prospects aren't great: because mobility is such an important part of his game. On the other hand, even if he isn't fine, he's probably giving them a better chance to win than Matt Cassell, one of the many quarterbacks keeping Colin Kaepernick out of the NFL, would.

The Colts beat the Niners at home last week in OT although San Francisco are a not terribly good team who contrive to find ways to lose. Jacoby Brissett started to connect with T.Y. Hilton and rookie Marlon Mack ran the ball well as a counter-balance to the veteran Frank Gore.

The Titans will be a tougher nut to crack because they can run the ball well behind a good line (though Taylor Lewan may be out and they didn't do much against Miami) and because they will likely hold the Colts' receivers in some sort of check.

With Houston and rookie QB DeShaun Watson playing well, despite losing two defensive stars for the season, the AFC South is no longer a keep pace with the Jags division: it's one the Titans can make a claim on with a home win here.

My Bets

But 7.5 is a pretty big line for a team with offensive questions, and I'd probably like the Colts + 7.5 at 10/11. I like the under 48 at 10/11 better than that.

Again I find the Monday night specials tempting. The Colts to score over 7.5 in the first half at 10/11 is a nice outside bet. And with individual players I'd keep an eye on Mariota Under 18.5 Completions , T.Y Hiton Over 5.5 Catches and Derrick Henry Over 28.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards, all available to back at 5/6.

And if you're looking ahead to Thursday Night Football this week, be careful. You'd tend to discount the Chiefs, with the travel on the short week, and the Raiders looking pretty flat against the Chargers. They're giving 2.5 and they ought to be able to cover at 4/6, but I like the under 47 at 10/11 better.

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