San Francisco 49ers @ St Louis Rams: The Niners will have the Rams' number

Romilly Evans
25 September 2013

Colin should have plenty to smile about after this match

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Romilly Evans expects Colin Kaepernick and his 49ers to bounce back to form against the beleaguered Rams...

"The Niners know they now need to relax the reigns on Kaepernick and let him roll"

San Francisco 49ers @ St Louis Rams
Start-time: Monday 01:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports 1

In Colin Kaepernick, the San Francisco 49ers thought they had found Superman last season. Faster than a speeding bullet on the ground, laser-accurate through the air: he looked the ultimate dual-threat quarterback during last year's play-offs.

However, only three weeks into the new campaign, and CK looks more like a bungling reporter for a major metropolitan newspaper than an offensive leader who will inspire his side to collective Super Bowl appearances.

Last week's unexpected loss to Indy proved an eloquent case in point. Following hard on the heels of a humbling to their main divisional rivals, the Seattle Seahawks, the 49ers now find themselves drifting like a proverbial barge in the outright lists for the Vince Lombardi Trophy, having headed the betting at the season's outset.

Two defeats do not a bad team make, however. In fact, if the past few seasons have taught us anything (as the New York Giants and Baltimore Ravens will attest) the Super Bowl is more about hitting a purple patch at the right time, as opposed to amassing the best regular-season record.

Nevertheless, the basic recent stats are telling. In the Niners' five matches (three of which were in the play-off spotlight) before the Seahawks shambles, the Red and Gold offense generated 33 points per game, churning an average of 464 yards. In their last two tussles, though, Kaepernick's offense has managed just 10 total points, coughed up seven spills for an average of only 230 yards.

Jim Harbaugh couldn't help but agree, even as he tried to turn negativity to optimism. "We're now got a rare chance to face adversity and give it a whipping," commented the coach.

Harbaugh is not wrong. The Niners remain an outfit to be reckoned with. And they will be glad of the short week and a quick opportunity to banish the painful memories of Candlestick Park on the road to another divisional foe, the St Louis Rams.

A win and their record will be back to 50-50 with a relatively easy schedule to come (the Hawks notwithstanding). A defeat and that's more crucial ground conceded to another NFC Westerner (potential crucial in season-ending tie-breakers). In short, a genuine crisis.

It's a fine line, of course, but even in Week 4 it's not too early to say it's a must-win game for the 49ers. The Niners know they now need to relax the reigns on Kaepernick and let him roll. They have perhaps been too keen to conserve his ground gains for the play-offs (resting him in pre-season and adopting a conservative running strategy). Although that's understandable, considering the dubious merits of Colt McCoy as back-up, Kaepernick must now run the risk of a heavy hit and play at full tilt.

Fortunately for CK and the 49ers, the team on the other side of the ball tonight is the lowly St Louis Rams. The Rams would also be experiencing a mini-crisis, were it not for their fans' rock-bottom expectations. Yet even such hopes looked excessive after their abject capitulation to the Dallas Cowboys.

St Louis have problems all over the park, but their inability to run the ball appears the most salient limitation. The Rams are probing the lows of the league's rushing charts (averaging a smidge of three yards per carry). And their best back, Daryl Richardson, remains on the injury list but is expected to appear in Primetime tonight because of the dearth of other foot soldiers present in the Rams' backfield.

San Francisco, of course, operate one of the toughest Ds in the NFL and will be looking to may hay against a predictable and restricted rival. Even with the palpable loss of linebacker Aldon Smith, the NFC Player of the Year last term, the 49ers can rack up the stops, while Smith clears out his locker and heads off for a protracted spell in rehab.

The 49ers' own rehabilitation should arrive sooner. A paltry field-goal handicap should prove little obstacle, as Superman bids to get his show back on the road.

Recommended bets:

Back San Francisco 49ers to win on the Moneyline @ 1.664/6 or better
Back San Francisco 49ers (-3) to win on the Match Points Spread @ 1.875/6 or better 
Back San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) to win on the First Half Points Spread @ 1.824/5 or better