NFL Betting: Take the Patriots at a rare underdog price

'You don't get rich betting against Bill Belichick'
'You don't get rich betting against Bill Belichick'

Big, bad New England look like they are down to their third string Quarterback, but Neil Monnery still isn't scared and likes the odds against Houston tonight

'There are no issues with the Patriots defense. I have long thought that Matt Patricia is the most underrated coordinator in the NFL. They don't have any real stars but everyone does their job and they are coached up impeccably. They'll keep it close.'

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots
Start-time: Friday 23 September, 01:25 BST
TV: Live on Sky Sports
 


Overview


First things first. I will be writing this preview under the assumption that Jimmy Garoppolo is unable to go. He's listed as doubtful on the official injury report and maybe if this was a vital game they might force the issue but this is a Thursday night game in September when the Pats are already 2-0 without Tom Brady. This isn't an important game.

So if it is Jacoby Brissett, is he ready for prime time? A third round pick out of North Carolina State who failed to light it up at the college level. He was beaten out of the Florida starting job by such disappointments as John Brantley and Jeff Driskel before transferring. His career completion percentage at the NCAA level was under 60%. On Sunday he came in and was handed a very limited offensive playbook. They won't be able to win tonight unless that book is opened up somewhat.

There are no issues with the Patriots defense. I have long thought that Matt Patricia is the most underrated coordinator in the NFL. They don't have any real stars but everyone does their job and they are coached impeccably. They'll keep it close.

For Houston it'll be a chance for Brock Osweiler to get his first national TV outing since his big money move to the Texans. I think there is no doubt that he'll want to show the watching the public that he's a player worth all the money after being benched in Denver, allowing the great (albeit limited by age and injuries) Peyton Manning to take back his job and lead the Broncos to Super Bowl 50 glory.

Osweiler has real weapons. DeAndre Hopkins is a known deep threat but first-round rookie Will Fuller out of Notre Dame has showed he can stretch the field. He might not have the most sure hands out of any player but expect plenty of deep shots from the Texans QB.

First Touchdown Scorer


Following straight on from the previous paragraph this is a Will Fuller play for the Texans. At 12/1 on the Sportsbook he should be at 8s or 9s. Over on the New England side, with Rob Gronkowski still dealing with hamstring issues (although not yet ruled out for tonight) and the primary running back being too short a price for me, I like 14/1 and Martellus Bennett.

Over/Under 40.5pts


I hate taking the unders but I just don't see a big scoring game. The line is set at 40.5pts and all logic points to taking the unders. The Texans D will go after the young QB and I always have faith in the Patriots D. Yet I'm taking the overs on a pure gut feel pick believing that maybe both defenses could notch up a TD score or create big turnovers deep in opponents territory.


The Spread & Straight-up Pick


The Patriots are giving 1.5pts in a home game. I think the last time that happened I was still enjoying 50p on pints of Lemonade at the Student Union bar. I have very few betting mantras when preparing these columns but one of them is, 'you don't get rich betting against Bill Belichick' and even though every logical part of my brain is screaming to take the Texans, I just can't.

I'm taking New England. Regardless of who they throw out as QB.


Recommend Bets

2pt Back the New England Patriots to win at 21/20 on the Sportsbook
2pt Back over 40.5pts at 20/21 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Will Fuller to score the first TD at 12/1 in the First Touchdown scorer market on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Martellus Bennett to score the first TD at 14/1 in the First Touchdown scorer market on the Sportsbook

Neil Monnery NFL P/L

2015:

Staked - 211pts
Returned - 277.44pts
P&L - +66.44pts

2016:

Staked - 22pts
Returned - 13.63pts
P&L - -8.38pts

Get a Free £/€20 Exchange Bet

  • Join Now - Open account using promo code VAL225
  • Bet - Place a £/€20 Bet on the Exchange
  • Earn We'll Refund You £/€20 If the Bet Loses

T&Cs apply.

Discover the latest articles

Read past articles