Super Bowl LI: An awesome offensive tussle awaits us in the big one

Neil Monnery
30 January 2017

Tom Brady has a steely determination to win another Super Bowl

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Super Bowl LI is approaching and Neil Monnery previews the biggest game of the season where he expects to see plenty of points put on the boards...

"Do I trust Matt Ryan to win the big game? No I don't. Do I trust Dan Quinn? No, not yet. Do I trust Tom Brady and Bill Belichick? Oh my word yes."

New England Patriots v Atlanta Falcons
Start-time: Sunday 5 January, 23:30 GMT
TV: Live on BBC & Sky Sports

Overview

This isn't a David v Goliath battle but representing the AFC are a team with a QB/Head Coach combo who have won four Super Bowls in Tom Brady and Bill Belicheck. They've also been to two more only to lose to two incredible plays. They could easily have won six times this century.

Over on the other sideline we have the pre-season 80/1 shot Atlanta Falcons. They've relied on one of the most dynamic offenses we've seen in the modern era. Quarterback Matt Ryan has shrugged off that 'good but nothing special' tag that he's had around his neck for most of his NFL career. With a 38:7 TD/Int ratio this season and throwing for seven scores with no picks in the playoffs, he's as hot as they come.

So we have two very different teams, one who has pretty much shocked the NFL watching world with their season and the Patriots, who were the favourite going into the season and have never relinquished that mantle.

The Falcons have the best wide receiver in football in my eyes in Julio Jones. I know there are those who'll say Antonio Brown or OBJ should be regarded as the best but I've long been a Jones fan. He reminds me of Larry Fitzgerald in his heyday, a receiver who can line up in any position and can run any route. There is nothing this guy doesn't have. He will be singled out by the Pats D of course.

Speaking of the Pats D, they were the #1 in terms of scoring defense this season. They gave up an average of just 15.6 pts/game. This is amazing when you consider how many members of that D you can name without looking it up. I like to think I watch a lot of NFL but I can name only three off hand, Malcolm Butler, Ron Ninkovich and Dont'a Hightower. Looking at their roster a few more names ring a bell but essentially they are a bunch of well-coached, less-than-star-names who all do their job. Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is the most underrated coach in the game.

On offense the Patriots have Tom Brady and we all know he's quite simply the greatest of all time (and I say this as a Peyton Manning man). Brady, like Manning, is a surgeon and has the ability to identify the defense and calculate the numbers in a split second. You can only beat Brady by constantly getting to him with just four rushers. If you bring a fifth man then the numbers are steeply in his favour.

One player Brady doesn't have though is Rob Gronkowski. Earlier I said Julio Jones was the best wide receiver in the league, well the Gronk is the most important offensive skill player in the game. If he was fit and available I think the Pats will roll to a relatively easy win. Without him I have had to think about it a bit more.

Not having him is a huge blow but one thing they do have is a great coach, who will identify a team's weakness and put together a new offensive scheme week in, week out. With the likes of Hogan, Mitchell, Edelman, Floyd and Amendola. Someone will get open constantly and make plays because that is just how the Pats roll.

The long and short of it is the Falcons have a tandem of running backs who can wear you down. They have a QB who is in the form of his life. They have the best offensive skill player who'll suit up on Sunday. They also have a defense that were able to rock Aaron Rodgers in the NFC Championship Game.

New England have Brady, they have Belichick, they have the historical background of knowing how to be in and win big games.

The question is, do you trust the hot team or what is historically the best team...?

First Touchdown Scorer

Last time out in the AFC Championship Game, Chris Hogan came through for me in this market. This week though I'm going to go for the tried and trusted Julian Edelman. He has become Brady's comfort blanket and I see a huge night for him. He's 10/1 to snaffle the first TD of Super Bowl LI. He's also priced up at 20/1 to get the MVP.

For the Falcons I think the Pats take away Julio Jones so go with Mohamed Sanu at 16/1 to get that first score.

Over/Under

I was going over all the way and didn't really care what the line was. Then I saw the line has been set at 58pts and I took a step back. That is very high but when you think about it, it makes sense. The Falcons have only failed to get to 24 points once this season and are firing on all cylinders at the moment. I also think the Pats are going to want to come out and not just win this game, but make a point. Deflategate is still an issue in their minds and Brady wants to rub commissioner Roger Goddell's face in it. I'm going with the over despite the almighty high line.

The Spread & Straight-up Pick

Here we go. The big pick. It has been an iffy year for me tips wise overall, but the record when picking games has actually been pretty good. It has been the side bets that have been the killer in a torrid spell in the middle of the season.

The problem I have is my brain doesn't just look at what is in front of me. If I look at these two teams in isolation then I think the outsider Falcons complete their stunning season by lifting the Lombardi Trophy. I think they have the game to give the Patriots all sorts of fits. Yet here is my conundrum, I know what these Patriots have done before and going against them has long been a foolish play.

Do I trust Matt Ryan to win the big game? No I don't. Do I trust Dan Quinn? No, not yet. Do I trust Tom Brady and Bill Belichick? Oh my word yes. History influences us and one more time I have to go with the tried and trusted combination. Not only do I think they win, I think they beat down the Falcons in one of the most decisive and statement Super Bowl wins in history. I like the Pats...big.