Well its finally here, Super Bowl 50. While I can say I am disappointed that my Seahawks did not make it for the third time in a row, there is a nifty little battle and intriguing match-up in this game. Similar to SB 48 that the Seahawks won, a dynamic offense against a nasty defense, except the juxtaposition for Denver; they were the offensive-minded team in SB 48 and the defense has put the team on its back to get to SB 50.
Most of my picks below will go as Cam Newton goes. A bad Cam day involves turnovers. A good Cam day does not. But what he brings to any game are potential touchdowns + yardage (sometimes in garbage time) so unless he gets injured you can bet on Newton to have a good statistical game, irrespective of the score.
Key questions on the Denver side:
• Will the superior defense provide short fields and chances for the Denver offense to score?
• Or will Old Man Manning throw the game away?
Key questions on the Carolina side:
• This team has looked dominant and has jumped out so early in both of their playoff games that no teams have been able to really take advantage of the depleted secondary and *middle* of the defense.
• They are still vulnerable there but have not been exposed, but can Denver stay close and leverage play action?
• Can Cam continue to make the average offensive skill players look *super*, or do they get a case of the big stage jitters and let him down with drops and mental errors?
Bet 1: 3pts Back Cam Newton OVER 42.5 Rushing yards @ 2.111/10 on the Exchange
Denver will play lots of man coverage, and rush their base 4 and sometimes 5. If Cam has no receiving options he can run with confidence. Also it's the last game of the year and he should get at least 4-5 called QB runs. This total should be achievable.
Bet 2: 2pts Back Denver OVER 17.5 team points @ 1.664/6 on the Sportsbook
If Carolina does go up big, Denver will get garbage touchdowns, but they will need to score at least 20 points to win this game, so going over 17.5 is a good bet to take. Carolina's defense has been scary not because they have kept teams out of the endzone, but that they have turned them over so significantly. That leaves plenty of room for Denver to score, even if they are being blown out.
Bet 3: 1pt Back Emmanuel Sanders ANYTIME scorer @ 2.47/5 on the Sportsbook
Josh Norman will be marking Demaryius Thomas. He will shut him down, but that leaves a secondary by committee to try and shut down Sanders. Carolina has also been victim of the deep ball to faster receivers (see Tyler Lockett) and Sanders fits this receiver mold. He can also catch a five-yard pass over the middle and take it to the house, so there is some value here based on match up.