NFL

Super Bowl LVIII Tips: 27/1 shot leads five Bet Builders for the big game

Super Bowl LVIII betting tips
Super Bowl LVIII betting tips

Paul Higham has scoured the mass of Super Bowl LVIII betting markets to bring you his best five Bet Builders for the San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs in Las Vegas...


San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Match Odds: 3/4 | 11/10
Points Spread: Niners -2.5
Total Over/Under: 47.5

We've got arguably the perfect match-up for the first Super Bowl in Las Vegas with a revenge of the 2020 edition with the champion Kansas City Chiefs defending their title against the San Francisco 49ers.

Two great defences, Patrick Mahomes against Brock Purdy and a multitude of superstars including Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Travis Kelce.

Find out who I'm backing to win in my Super Bowl match preview, but for here let's look at a selection of Bet Builder options based on how the big game could go...


Mahomes magic wins it for Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs.jpg

If the Chiefs win, odds are Patrick Mahomes will be a major reason why, and chances are he'll deliver over 1.5 passing TDs at 8/131.61. He's only managed that once in three play-off games this season, but he had three in last year's Super Bowl.

Mahomes averages 282 yards over 17 play-off games but production has largely been more modest and with a large dose of Isiash Pacheco that could again be the case - but 25+ rushing yards at 8/111.73 appeals.

He had 44 yards last year and has been using his legs to good effect this season too. Nick Bosa will have him on his toes so his rushing total actually looks more solid than his passing.

Pacheco has scored in six of his last seven games and in his last four straight play-off games, while what more can we say about Travis Kelce? Well, how about he's got 19 play-off TDs, has scored in two Super Bowls and 11 of his last 13 post-season outings.

Back Chiefs win, Mahomes 2+ pass TDs, 25+ rush yards, Kelce & Pacheco to score TDs @ 12/113.00

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San Francisco all stars shine for 49ers

ChristianMcCaffrey_49ers.jpg

The San Francisco defence will have to stop Mahomes, but if they're to win Christian McCaffrey will have to continue his incredible run of scoring in all six of his play-off appearances and topping 100 total yards in five of them.

And if you fancy the Niners to win it's worth backing McCaffrey for MVP at 4/15.00 as he'll have needed another stacked stat line to beat these Chiefs.

Kyle Shanahan will also get Deebo Samuel on the ball as often as possible, especially running in the open field as that's a weak point for KC - and for anyone trying to stop him to be fair.

George Kittle scored his seventh TD of the season against Green Bay and will be a big red zone threat for Brock Purdy, who has nine multiple TD games this season and five post-season TD passes, and has also started using his legs to great effect this season.

Back 49ers win, Purdy 2+ pass TDs & 12.5+ rush yards, Samuel 50+ receiving yards, Kittle & McCaffrey TDs @ 27/128.00

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A Super Bowl shootout on The Strip

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With all the talent we've listed there's easily enough firepower to get over 47.5 points in the match without breaking too much of a sweat.

And what about Mahomes running in a TD this time, which he's 4/15.00 to do for a sixth time in the play-offs and second in a Super Bowl - having scored in the win over the 49ers in 2020.

A shoot primarily means both QBs slinging it though, so Purdy will get over his 246.5 line and Mahomes will eclipse his 262.5-yard marker as they trade blows in Vegas.

Back over 47.5 points, Mahomes TD & +262.5 yards, Purdy +246.5 yards @ 18/119.00

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Defence wins championships

San Francisco 49ers Fred Warner.jpg

We've got a ton of attacking talent on show but let's not forget that these two defences have been incredible - with both averaging just over 17 points per game allowed this season.

KC haven't allowed more than 27 in any game and kept opponents to 20 points or less in 15 of 20 matches, so have been more consistent than San Fran who have also been excellent but have been gashed at times - including by Detroit in the NFC title game.

But both could thrive here with two weeks planning so under 45.5 points at 5/61.84 is the basis of this Bet Builder.

Three of the last four San Fran games had 45 points or less, and seven of the last eight for the Chiefs, who have made a habit of creating low-scoring games.

In this scenario we also have to go under on both QBs passing yards, which will just continue a trend as Mahomes hasn't eclipsed 262.5 yards in his last four play-off games and has only thrown two TDs or more in two of his last eight.

Purdy has also only one out of five play-off games throwing more than one TD, so we'll go unders on everything in a defensive struggle of a Super Bowl.

Back under 45.5pts, under 7.5 1st Qtr pts, Mahomes under 262.5yd & 1.5 TDs, Purdy under 246.5yds & 1.5 TDs @ 13/114.00

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The other guys

Rashee Rice Chiefs.jpg

Brandon Aiyuk is being overlooked somewhat but he was San Fran's leading receiver this season so over 56.5 yards for him should be fine, and Jauan Jennings impressed with a few crucial catches and I'm all over the 11/102.11 for him to catch just two passes or more.

And for the Chiefs, rookie receiver Rashee Rice has been a great addition and needs only 20 yards for the second-most play-off yards ever by a wideout in his debut season.

And I'll put Marquez Valdes-Scantling in almost the same boat as Jennings, as that over 1.5 reception line doesn't take much to meet at 5/61.84 - as MVS has done in the last two games.

Back Aiyuk 62.5+ & Rice over 60+ rec yards, Jennings & Valdes-Scantling over 1.5 catches @ 12/113.00

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Get more Super Bowl LVIII tips with our MVP betting preview


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