After three winners from four including a 16/1 shot last week, Neil Monnery is rolling more dice with a 33/1 pick and a big upset in the two live NFL games on Sunday evening.
"Romo has had more of his fair share of heartbreaking losses but in recent times he's been a go to guy in tight games late. He is becoming a QB you can trust with the game on the line."
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Live on Sky Sports 2
We start on Sunday with Rex Ryan's big mouth and Bill Belichick's ice cold put downs. The Bills put together one of the biggest surprises in Week 1 when they took apart the heavily fancied Colts in front of a raucous home crowd. Tyrod Taylor in his début as a starting quarterback engineered three TD drives whilst going 14 of 19 for 195 yards with a score, in addition to rushing for 41. Not stellar but certainly good enough to win after his defense picked off Andrew Luck twice.
Buffalo are well up for this and the home faithful believe in Rex Ryan. The former New York Jets head coach has been rather confident in the build-up. The line is only set at Buffalo +1 points on the exchange, which shows a lot of people see this as a close game. The Pats D isn't great and LeSean McCoy will have a good night running the ball and in Sammy Watkins they have a legitimate threat down the field.
Yet here's three things the Bills don't have which the Patriots do:
1) Bill Belichick
2) Tom Brady
3) Rob Gronkowski
Bill is a master at game-planning and exploiting the other team's weakness. Brady is one of the greatest of all-time and is playing at the top of his game with a chip on his shoulder. As for Gronkowski, even Ryan said that you had to be King Kong to cover him.
LeGarrette Blount is back from suspension and is expected to line up at running back. Dion Lewis was outstanding last week in spot duty going for 120 all purpose yards. I suspect he'll see some time in the game as a change-up back as well as catching the ball out of the backfield.
I like the Patriots to go into Buffalo and win. Ryan is 1-7 in his last eight starts against Belichick and that is a stat not to sniff at. At 1.9420/21 on the exchange in the straight up match odds market, they are much better value than I'd expect. As for who might score the first touchdown, I'm going for a small bet on Tom Brady at 33/1 on the Sportsbook. Tom is the best in the game at the QB sneak and that is way too big a price for him. If they get 1st and Goal at the 1 then Brady will stick his head down and take it in himself.
Back New England to win @ 1.9420/21 on the exchange
Back Tom Brady to score the first TD at 33/1 on the Sportsbook
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Live on Sky Sports 2
The second game of the Sunday night doubleheader is an NFC East clash. In Week 1 Philadelphia lost a game they really should have won while Dallas won a game they really should have lost. Sadly for Dallas that victory came at a cost as Dez Bryant suffered a broken foot and is expected to miss at least four games.
The Sam Bradford era in Philly didn't start well as the offense looked shaky with him under center. Superstar DeMarco Murray couldn't get much going on the ground despite scoring two touchdowns. His nine yards on eight carries isn't what people expected and much much more is expected as he faces his former team on Sunday.
The Eagles couldn't handle the Atlanta air attack on Monday night with Julio Jones running amok in the Philly secondary. They spent a lot of money in the off-season and didn't get many results in the first week.
As for Dallas they lost their star receiver but they won the game. The New York Giants had them bang to rights but contrived to lose that game. On the other hand though Tony Romo led his team down the field twice in the fourth quarter to win the game.
Romo has had more of his fair share of heartbreaking losses but in recent times he's been a go to guy in tight games. He is becoming a QB you can trust with the game on the line. Jason Witten is still his favourite target and he'll get open when the time comes and Cole Beasley is a WR who can really turn up field and make plenty of yards after the catch.
I am a fan of the Dallas D but one thing that I am worried about is their conditioning. The Philly high-tempo offense will keep going and I think Dallas will bend but the question is will they break?
My answer is no. I'm going with the big upset and Dallas to win straight up at 2.9215/8 in a gut feel pick. Lots of logic and reason behind picking Philly but I have this belief in Romo that I never thought I'd have and think he will get his team to 2-0. If you want a side bet then how about 6/1 for the Eagles to lead at the half but Dallas to win the game?
Back Dallas to win @ 2.9215/8 on the exchange
Back Philly to lead at HT but lose at FT at 6/1 on the Sportsbook
Neil Harvey will be here to preview the final two live games of the weekend.