NFL Tips: Pittsburgh to win shootout at Arrowhead

Neil Harvey
15 January 2017

Ben Roethlisberger shredded Kansas during a 43-14 victory in Week Four

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The Steelers thrashed the Chiefs earlier in the season. Will home advantage help Kansas get revenge? Neil Harvey doesn't think so...

"Le'Veon Bell put up 144 rushing yards in that previous meeting. When the defense is terrified of the pass, it tends to open up the run a tad. An estimated 137 rushing AND receiving yards for Bell this time? I'll have some of that."

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Monday, 01:20
Live on Sky Sports

There's one game I watched this season which impacted upon me far more than any other. In fact I'd say it scarred me. And that game was Pittsburgh versus Kansas. That Week Four encounter ended in a 43-14 win for Pittsburgh. And the 29 point margin of victory would have been even bigger had the Steelers not eased off.

What shocked me so much though was the ease with which Pittsburgh exposed the Chiefs' defense. Let's be clear, this game was done and dusted in the first quarter - and that's something you almost never see. On Pittsburgh's very first possession, Ben Roethlisberger threw the ball deep down the right sideline to Sammie Coates for a 47 yard completion. A fluke I thought. This Kansas defense is tough I thought. That was until Pittsburgh's next possession, when Big Ben hit Darius Heyward-Bey, this time down the left sideline, for a 31 yard touchdown. Fast forward a few minutes, and we're still in the first quarter here mind, and this time Roethlisberger threw deep to the middle of the field, connecting with Antonio Brown for a 38 yard score.

Now this was incredible stuff to behold. It was only the end of the opening quarter and the Steelers were already up 22 to nothing. And they'd done it by just launching one deep ball after another. Pittsburgh Head Coach Mike Tomlin clearly saw how poorly Kansas defended the first deep pass and so he tested them out with another. Who can blame him? And then he did it again. This was flat track bully stuff and the Chiefs couldn't stop it. It continued in the second half, with another 30 yard touchdown pass. And from here on in, Pittsburgh were focused on just running down the clock.

It was the most one-sided game I've seen in years and there's no way I'm going to advocate anything but backing Pittsburgh to beat Kansas again here. Don't worry about questions over Big Ben's fitness. If there was any real doubt, there's no way Kansas would be priced close to even money. Roethlisberger's fine. And I fully expect him to start this game by putting the Chief's defense to the test, by aiming deep into the heart of their secondary. Star receiver Antonio Brown would only need a couple of big receptions to pass his quote of 88 yards for the game. That looks a steal. Roethlisberger eased off in the last meeting and still reached 300 yards. He can pass 265 yards without breaking sweat. How about tight end Jesse James though to steal the opening touchdown at a huge 16/1? He's joint second in the team for TDs this season.

Le'Veon Bell put up 144 rushing yards in that previous meeting. When the defense is terrified of the pass, it tends to open up the run a tad. An estimated 137 rushing AND receiving yards for Bell this time? I'll have some of that thank you very much.

The kick-off time for this fixture has been pushed back seven hours because of weather concerns, with freezing rain forecast early in the day. But that should be long gone come game time. The concern here's not for the football game itself, it's about giving local authorities enough time to clear icy roads for the travelling fans.

Of course, there is another talented football team involved here. And undoubtedly their best player right now is Tyreek Hill. This guy is fast. He's greasy fast. So fast he made the Denver linebackers look like they were running through treacle when they tried to chase him down a couple of weeks back. Now strangely enough, Hill was playing the last time these teams met and was kept fairly quiet - making five catches for just 25 yards albeit adding a touchdown, plus one rush for -2 yards.

It's in the running game that Hill has become a threat. This is where he has time and space to get up to full speed and run at the defense. And he's so tough to stop when he does. So he could well do some damage here. When catching the ball though, unless it's a deep pass that sends him clear, he's likely to have a defender all over him within a heartbeat of making the catch. That said, I think Hill's far too quick for the Steelers' linebackers and could shred them running out of the backfield. His quote of 65 rushing and receiving yards combined looks an absolute gift.

Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith will look to Travis Kelce with a tonne of passes. Kelce looks bang in form and I like him to pass 63 yards and make a score. Somebody has to have a quiet day though, and I suspect Spencer Ware could be that man as he cedes carries to the lightning-in-a bottle Hill. I suggest going low on his 66 rushing yards.

Kansas can make this a lot closer than last time. They're at home and will know what to expect from Pittsburgh. They've also discovered the true threat they possess in Tyreek Hill, who I think will be unleashed early on and could certainly score. But the Kansas cornerbacks fill me with too much fear. The scoreboard could get a good work out and in terms of total points I like over 50 here at 6/4.