Live NFL Sunday Tips: Pittsburgh and Dallas to get upset wins

Sean Lee will have another quarterback in his sights on Sunday evening
Sean Lee will have another quarterback in his sights on Sunday evening

With a healthy profit for the NFL season so far, Neil Monnery is trusting his instincts and going against the favourites in both live games on Sky on Sunday evening...


"I want to think the Packers are really good but they would have lost at Detroit if it wasn't for an iffy face mask penalty and one of the poorest defended Hail Mary's in NFL history. Had they dropped that game it would have been five defeats from six."

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Start-time: Sunday 18:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports 2 and Sky Two
 

Renowned NFL talking head and journalist Peter King had Pittsburgh all the way up at six in this week's fine fifteen, this gives the indication that the 7-5 team are a force to be reckoned with. They have two tough matches on the spin as they travel to AFC North rival Cincinnati this week before returning home to face the fearsome Denver defense.

Earlier this week in my weekly trends column, I wrote that Seattle will be the most dangerous wildcard team we've seen in a while. In the AFC there is little doubt that Pittsburgh are the team all the top seeds will want to avoid. Having gone to Seattle and essentially thrown the game away through a couple of dumb plays, they returned home to spank the over-matched Colts in the Sunday night game.

Big Ben is always a QB who can cause teams trouble. Brown and Bryant can both stretch the field and make plays. Heath Miller is an experienced TE who is expected to return but even if he doesn't, his understudy is rookie Jesse James who I watched a lot in college. The Outlaw as he is unsurprisingly nicknamed is going to be a fine target for short crossing routes, a good set of hands and a strong body.

For the Bengals, they are coming off a 37-3 beat-down of the pathetic Browns. Taking them apart is nothing to write home about but they needed a confidence builder following a bad home loss to Houston and going down in a cracking game in Arizona. We know Andy Dalton is good, we know AJ Green is great.

We saw these two teams play out a tight one earlier in the season, where the Bengals made the big plays in the fourth quarter to win the game. I don't see that happening this time. I think Pittsburgh go into Ohio and get the win straight up, no need for the spread here. You can currently back Pittsburgh straight up at 2.3211/8.

Over on the Sportsbook you can get 3/1 on Pittsburgh +2.5 and under 48.5 points and that looks good to me. It was 16-10 last time they met and I think the defenses will dominate again. The first TD markets aren't open at the time of writing on the Sportsbook, so they can't go on my record but I like Tyler Eifert or Heath Miller if you can get the former for 8s and the latter at 12s or longer.

Recommended Bets

3pt Back Pittsburgh to win straight up at 2.3211/8 on the Exchange
2pt Back Pittsburgh +2.5 and under 48.5 points at 3/1 on the Sportsbook


Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Start-time: Sunday, 21:25
TV: Live on Sky Sports 2
 

If only Tony Romo was healthy then I'd be so jacked for this game. We all remember what happened in January and I have no doubt Dallas do as well. For those who have forgotten then let me remind you.

The Cowboys were driving to win the game and move on to the NFC Championship Game. Romo goes deep to Bryant on a 4th and 2, and the receiver makes a superb catch. As he goes to the ground he stretches to try and break the plane but fails and as the ball hits the ground it pops up. Bryant grabs the ball before it hits the ground whilst lying in the end zone. It is ruled a catch but a challenge flag is thrown and after review it is ruled an incomplete pass and Green Bay take over possession and win the game.

Watching it live I thought it was a catch. Watching the replays I thought it was a catch. Watching it 11 odd months later and I still think it was a catch. The Cowboys got hosed on a terrible decision by the replay official and referee Gene Steratore. I know I've written over 100 words on a game from last year but trust me, it will be all over not only the broadcast, but also the Cowboys locker room pre-game. It is a big storyline for this game.

Dallas aren't a very good team when Romo isn't playing QB but here is the thing, they have been competitive without him in the majority of games. They have a seriously A grade linebacking corps and Sean Lee was immense on Monday night. They can rush the passer with the best of them and the porous Packers o-line will mean Rodgers is going to be throwing hot.

Green Bay are still a team I don't have a good handle on. I want to think the Packers are really good but they would have lost at Detroit if it wasn't for an iffy face mask penalty and one of the poorest defended Hail Mary's in NFL history. Had they dropped that game it would have been five defeats from six. Eddie Lacy veers from the effective to the absent in the backfield. I don't think Aaron Rodgers trusts any of his wide receivers and trusts his line even less. I think I'm ready to make my biggest odds against pick of the season.

I'm taking Dallas to win straight up at 3.613/5 on the exchange. I think it'll be a low scoring game so I'm also taking the 19/10 on the Sportsbook for Dallas +6.5 and under 45.5 points. Like the early game, the first TD markets aren't available on the Sportsbook at the time of writing, but I like Jason Witten at 9s or longer and Richard Rodgers at 14s or more.

Recommended Bets

2pt Back Dallas to win straight up at 3.613/5 on the Exchange
2pt Back over Dallas +6.5 and under 45.5 points at 19/10 on the Sportsbook


Neil Monnery NFL P/L 2015 Season

Staked - 148pts
Returned - 194.18pts
P&L - +46.18pts

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