NFL Betting: Essential post-season stats ahead of the battle to make Super Bowl XLVIII

Romilly Evans
03 January 2014

Both good and bad news is on the cards for Packers' fans

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Romilly Evans surveys the seedings for the NFL play-offs and clarifies those statistics that matter

"The AFC No.3 seed is approximately 80% likely to win their Wildcard game."

In the play-offs, the leading four teams (a brace apiece from the AFC and NFC) enjoy homefield draws and even a bye week in which to rest their weary limbs. There's no rest, however, for the lesser lights who contest the Wildcard Round, upcoming this weekend.

Home games are undeniably a huge advantage in the NFL. Both boffin analysis and lazy armchair theory bear this out. And so does the narrower frame of play-off history, where 68% of home sides have prevailed in their opening matches (92 games) since the current 12-team format was introduced in 1990.

Still, while seven of the last eight "entertainers" have prevailed at the Wildcard stage, it's worth remembering that three of the four away sides defied the stats and the odds as recently as 2010. As they say, it's a fine line between statistics and damn lies.

So here are a few sturdier numbers and probabilistic pointers (again, since that pertinent 1990 marker) which should prevent you from choking on your remaining mince pies as the festive action gathers pace...

• No AFC No.5 seed has ever made it to the Super Bowl. That's bad news for this year's Kansas City Chiefs.

• Only two NFC No.4 seeds have managed to win their Divisional game. Which means the Green Bay Packers' post-season stay could be short-lived.

 And if you're more interested in this week's Wildcards...

• The AFC No.3 seed is approximately 80% likely to win their Wildcard game. So the Cincinnati Bengals may not bungle their big opportunity this time, having fallen at the first in the previous two campaigns. They were visiting team then, though, and the home comforts of the third seeding of the Paul Brown Stadium could bring about a change of luck.

• Over in the NFC, the No.4 has a 70% chance of prevailing in their opening match. So it's good and bad news for the Pack.

 If you're less concerned with short-term rewards, though, consider the following on the longer road to the Big Apple and Super Bowl XLVIII...

Appearances can be deceptive - Getting into bed with the top seeds

Yes, it seems those top brasses can quickly rust when exposed in Play-off Country. In the past five years, five No.1 seeds have lost their play-off openers. And 2009 is the only time since 1993 when both No. 1 seeds (AFC and NFC) have made it to the Super Bowl. This year's pre-eminent pair of the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks should accordingly take note.

More tellingly, there have been eight occasions since 2000 when one of these chart-toppers has been consigned to the bargain bin prematurely, while the other has wound up as the losing Super Bowl finalist. Last year's Super Bowl didn't even house either of the top dogs, with both Denver and Atlanta exiting at the Conference Championship juncture.

• 2012: the No. 1 Atlanta Falcons lose the Conference game, the No. 1 Denver Broncos lose Conference game.
 • 2011: the No. 1 Green Bay Packers lose the Divisional game, the No. 1 New England Patriots lose the Super Bowl.
• 2007: the No. 1 Dallas Cowboys lose the Divisional game, the No. 1 New England Patriots lose the Super Bowl.
• 2006: the No. 1 San Diego Chargers lose the Divisional game, the No. 1 Chicago Bears lose the Super Bowl.
• 2005: the No. 1 Indianapolis Colts lose the Divisional game, the No. 1 Seattle Seahawks lose the Super Bowl.
• 2004: the No. 1 Pittsburgh Steelers lose the Conference game, the No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles lose the Super Bowl.
• 2002: the No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles lose the Conference game, the No. 1 Oakland Raiders lose the Super Bowl.
• 2001: the No. 1 Pittsburgh Steelers lose the Conference game, the No. 1 Rams lose the Super Bowl.
• 2000: the No. 1 Tennessee Titans lose the Divisional game, the No. 1 Giants lose the Super Bowl.

Wildcard Weekend used to be known as Walkover Weekend in the NFL. No longer. Especially in one of the most open seasons on record. In six of the last seven Super Bowls, at least one finalist was a contender in the Wildcard Round. So don't discount these unlikelier lads, if the statistics are to be believed. Unless I'm using stats like a drunk uses a lamppost: for support not illumination. Well, t'is the season.