Seattle Seahawks @ LA Rams: Wilson heroics can lead Seattle to another close win

Mark Kirwan
07 December 2019

Seattle's Russell Wilson could be league MVP this season

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The NFC West has become the toughest division in football again and Sunday's night showdown between the Seahawks and Rams should show why, writes Mark Kirwan....

"With Wilson capable of working miracles in broken play, middling defensive play is proving to be enough to put Seattle among the front-runners so far. All ten of their wins this season coming by a converted touchdown or less. That could take them to another Lombardi trophy."

Seattle Seahawks @ LA Rams
Monday, 01:20
Live on Sky Sports Action

Gurley resurgence?

The Rams are defending the NFC Championship crown, so perhaps it's to be expected that their division is tougher than most. That they're currently lingering in third, behind Seattle and San Francisco, tells you that their play has been surpassed since they went to the Super Bowl last February.

The cracks were showing before their struggling effort in last season's finale though, and it's hard not to trace it all back to Todd Gurley getting hurt in Week 14.

The wrecking ball running back played with what he called "knee inflammation" throughout the season, but the complaint became more acute in the closing weeks of the campaign and he has not played at the level we were used to since.

It has really curtailed LA this season. His stats are down in both running and passing. He's averaging under 60 yads per game on the ground this season, where he was almost over 90 the last two seasons, and his passing yardage will finish approximately a third of what previous season would've predicted.

It all means that the Rams offence has not been functioning as well as last year. There have long been doubts about Jared Goff at quarterback, and, without the support of Gurley and lumbered with sub-par offensive line play this season, the frailties in his game have shone through.

He has 12 interceptions and five lost fumbles already too. He threw 12 interceptions in all of last season. He also threw 32 touchdowns, where he has just 13 this year.

The offence has missed the speed of receiver Brandin Cooks periodically too due to concussion. Without him and Gurley stretching defences, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods have not been as effective, and the Rams offence, hailed as one of the most efficient in the NFL last season in terms of its design and adaptability, has been a big let-down.

Recent weeks, however, have seen an uptick in their play. Coach Sean McVay hinted this week that Gurley's drop in production might be down to the coaching staff's more conservative usage of him than his physical condition.

Reporter: what's led to Todd Gurley's increased usage?

Sean McVay: "Me not being an idiot(with a smile)... no, he's felt good."
? Omar Ruiz (@OmarDRuiz) December 4, 2019

The running back has scored four times in his last three games and, more encouragingly, averaged five yard per carry last week against the Cardinals for 95 rushing yards.

The defence has also stepped up. Yes, they were gashed by Lamar Jackson a fortnight ago, but most teams are struggling to cope with him, they held a frisky Arizona offence to under 200 yards last week, and their run defence ranks as third best in the league by DVOA. That should matter against Seattle.

Seahawks flying high

Seattle rallied in spectacular fashion on Monday night, scoring 27 points in the second half as they overcame the Vikings to take over at the top of the NFC West. It means they've pushed ahead of the 49ers in the division - San Francisco have gone from the last undefeated team in the league to current fifth seed in the NFC playoffs in the space of a month.

The win over Minnesota extended Seattle's winning streak to five games. They rank third in the NFL for offensive DVOA and Russell Wilson is playing at an MVP level.

And yet it still feels like there are weak links in this team.

Tyler Lockett is Wilson's favourite receiver, but injury has held him back in recent weeks. Rookie DK Metcalfe and Patriots reject Jacob Hollister have become big options in the meanwhile, while another New England cast-off, Josh Gordon, is yet to make an impact.

At a coaching level, questions remain over Brian Schottenheimer at OC and the consistent game plan that revolves around running the ball despite Wilson's proficiency passing and eluding pressure.

It has become a truism that the Seahawks need to find themselves down by double digits before they start playing. And their defence, at least through the opening months of the season, were happy to oblige in setting up great comebacks.

They have improved, however. Jadeveon Clowney was brought in midseason and has given them a pass-rush they were lacking. Their secondary is still not an elite unit, but its play has improved sufficiently with more help from the D-line to make the defence average.

With Wilson capable of working miracles in broken play, middling defensive play is proving to be enough to put Seattle among the front-runners so far. All ten of their wins this season coming by a converted touchdown or less. That could take them to another Lombardi trophy.

The Picks

The Rams aren't as bad as they looked a few weeks back and Seattle are a tough team to trust, but my inclination is to go with the road team in this spot. They're finding a way to win games, and while LA have shown they're better than the team that was dismantled by the Ravens, their offence just hasn't looked as powerful this season as last.

Plus, Seattle always seem to find ways to hang on in these games - their win in San Francisco this season was a prime example of their never-say-die play. They're getting +1 on the road here, and I expect them to win this game in the same fashion they've won the rest, by just nipping ahead, so the 2.0421/20 on the Moneyline looks good value to me. You could also look at Seattle Seahawks to win by 1 to 6 points in the Winning Margin market on the Sportsbook - that'd be my preference at 7/2.

Over on the total of 47.5 points looks a strong play too this week, with both of these defences liable to give up points and offences capable of scoring. Presumably Gurley's usage will remain up this week, the Rams should have Cooks back too, and this should open up their offence.

Seattle are averaging almost 30 points per game in their last five outings too, so the points look very reachable at 1.9210/11.

In terms of a scoring interest, Jacob Hollister is the stand out option for the Seahawks. He only ascended to the starting tight end spot with Will Dissly hitting IR in Week 6, but has collected 25 receptions in from 36 targets to pass Jaron Brown and David Moore as one of Russell Wilson's favourite targets. He has three TDs this season and should fancy his chances of a fourth on Sunday. He's 3/1 Anytime and worth taking.

You can combine Seattle win, Over 47.5 and Hollister Anytime for a Same Game Multi that pays out at over 10/1 on the Sportsbook.