San Diego Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals: Dalton and Green to feast on the visitors' poor pass defense

Neil Harvey
05 January 2014

Green could put up some spectacular numbers against San Diego

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No team is a shorter price to win on Wildcard weekend than Cincinnati and Neil Harvey can't find a reason to oppose them...

"Dalton and Green have linked-up on pitch-length plays time and time again this season. They also connected for a touchdown when these teams met in Week 13, and if I had a house to spare, it would go on them doing so once again this weekend."

AJ Green to score anytime touchdown @ 1.9110/11 or better

San Diego Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Kick Off - Sunday, 18:05
Live on Sky Sports 1

Here are a few meaty facts for you to chew on, before we dive into the minutiae of this fixture.

Firstly, the gap between these sides is, on paper, the biggest of all this weekend's wildcard games, with Cincinnati having won the AFC North with a record of 11-5, while San Diego came just third in the AFC West with a record of 9-7.

Secondly, Cincinnati defeated San Diego in their own back yard in Week 13 of the regular season, by a scoreline of 17-10.

And thirdly, and finally, Cincinnati are unbeaten at home this season, with a record of eight straight victories at the Paul Brown Stadium.

Now you don't have to be Columbo to recognise that those facts represent pretty weighty clues as to which of these teams is more likely to win. And certainly the Betfair layers agree with that viewpoint, having made Cincinnati their shortest-priced favourite of all this weekend's wildcard teams.

If we look more closely at the manner of Cincinnati's eight from eight home victories, we find that the Bengals won those games by a cumulative margin of 141 points. Or in other words, they won each match by an average of more than 17 points. And these were no mugs they were playing, with their opponents including no less than three play-off teams, in the forms of Green Bay, Indianapolis and New Orleans. It's worth noting though, that the victories over those three particular sides were by a smaller margin, with the Bengals prevailing in those games by an average of just over eight points.

Whichever way you slice it though, Cincinnati look like formidable hosts, and for any team to even get within a touchdown of them, they'll need to be among the NFL's elite.

That, however, is not a description that applies to San Diego. Dangerous? Perhaps. Unpredictable? Most certainly. But elite? Not a chance.

Some people will tell you tales of San Diego's Week 15 victory over Denver, in Colorado. They'll wax lyrical about the almost magical performance of one Philip Rivers, as he helped the Chargers to defeat the much-vaunted Broncos in their own backyard.

And yes, they are right. This did happen. But as any gambler knows all too well, one swallow does not a summer make. San Diego's victory over the Broncos should be stored in the same drawful of anomalies that also contains James 'Buster' Douglas' knockout win over Mike Tyson, as well as Greece's football triumph at Euro 2004. Sometimes in sport, weird things just happen. To understand what San Diego are really about, simply watch a re-run of last week's unbelievably laboured win over Kansas City's second-team. Impressive it was not.

Both in terms of running and passing, when it comes to offense, there's not too much to separate the teams. But it's on defense where the similarities end. Cincinnati's fifth-ranked pass defense is good enough to keep Rivers honest.

But down the other end of the field, it's worrying to think of San Diego's 29th ranked secondary going up against the Bengal's number eight pass-offense. Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton has already hooked-up with superstar receiver AJ Green so many times that you could be forgiven for thinking they were an item. And I suppose in footballing terms, they are. These two have linked-up on pitch-length plays time and time again this season. They also connected for a touchdown when these teams met in Week 13, and if I had a house to spare, it would go on them doing so once again this weekend.

This is Green's third season in the NFL and he just continues to get better and better. With 11 touchdowns to his name this season, and an average of almost 90 yards per game, he's been many people's top receiver in the entire NFL, and yes, that includes Megatron. So for me, the thought of him taking-on the Chargers secondary conjures-up images of 'Jabba The Hut' sitting down to an all-you-can-eat buffet.

And if Green doesn't put up big yards or find the endzone in this game, I'll eat my keyboard.