NFL Tipping Sheet: Week Four Previews and Moneyline Picks

SportNeverSleeps.com
27 September 2013

Is it Big Ben's time in London?

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Week 4 has some solid action with some great value in certain markets and of course there is the game at Wembley Stadium. Let's get to it....

"Ben Roethlisberger in London is always money and I think that this time around will be no different. "

Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday 18:00
Heading into this game I am slightly unsure of the outcome. There are questions regarding the Buccaneers and how they will cope with a big change this week. Bucs coach Greg Schiano has benched Josh Freeman and brought in rookie quarterback Mike Glennon, who is making his first start as a pro. He is the first choice of Schiano and we will now get to see if has placed his trust with the right man. Can the youngster handle the pressure and will he be able to adapt to the speed of the regular season? I think it might be a bit too much this time round and that the Cardinals calculating defence will expose the flaws in the rookie quarterbacks first outing. The Cardinals have a strong run defence but Doug Martin is very talented and should still be able to put up reasonable numbers. It is a hard game to call and although Arizona has lost nine straight games on the road, I think that the experience of Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer will out gun the young newbie. Back the Cards to win a tight game.
Recommended Bet: Cardinals @ 2.24

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
Sunday 18:00
After Baltimore's Week 1 pounding at the hands of Peyton Manning and the Broncos, the Ravens defence has bounced back well. After last week's win over the Texans, they showed that they could still play a certain about of defence. They limited the Texans to 4.3 yards per play and showed some real grit and determination. Offensively they aren't great but they are putting themselves about. As for Buffalo, they play hard and tough at home and that could be their best hope of getting something from the game. They will need to be on top form to get something out of this though. Their defence has shown glimpses of brilliance but they won't get it perfect until safety Jairus Byrd is back on the scene. The Bills are beginning to look like a more competitive team now but rookie quarterback EJ Manuel will not be looking forward to facing up to the hard nosed Ravens and might be a bit out of his depth. Joe Flacco will have his first big game of the season as Baltimore pick up a hard fought, close victory.
Recommended Bet: Ravens @ 1.67

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Sunday 18:00
This game will be a no-holds barred fight. It will be loud at Ford Field and that could give the Lions a slight advantage. It will be close and could go either way. I'm not sure which way to lean when it comes to picking a winner. Chicago has looked good early on this season and Jay Cutler has been crucial to that improvement. He has been the difference in the fourth quarter of all three wins this season. The Bears will be missing Henry Melton but should still be putting a lot of pressure on Matthew Stafford. Detroit can call on Reggie Bush again which is a plus but I think that the Bears will have too many weapons and will be able to tame the Lions. I'm looking forward to seeing how Charles Tillman and Calvin Johnson square off. It will be interesting to see if Tillman can again do what no other cornerback can do and stop Johnson. Megatron has 17 catches for 268 yards and three touchdowns this season and will be looking for revenge against the man who stopped him reaching 2,000 receiving yards last year. Both teams are well matched and it could come down to which team makes the least errors to determine who gets the win. My pick? Bears. Just.
Recommended Bet: Bears @ 2.4

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Sunday 18:00
Cleveland was quite impressive in Week 3 against Minnesota and picked up a slightly surprising win. This wasn't due to the fact that the Browns quarterback Brian Hoyer had become a major-league player over night. It was mainly down to the Vikings underachieving defence. Hoyer is not a game changer and could struggle up against a really good Cincinnati team. They have a very talented roster and are coming together nicely. A.J. Green is the pick of the bunch at the minute and should flourish in this game. The Browns secondary will have a hard day at the office trying to cover him. The Bengals are flying high and have downed two tough and gritty teams in their last two outings beating both the Steelers and the Packers. The Bengals should have more than enough to beat the Browns just as long as they don't take their eye off the ball with New England lurking on the horizon.
Recommended Bet: Bengals @ 1.5

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday 18:00
Could Jacksonville be one of the worst teams that we have seen in a long time? Possibly. They are really struggling to put anything together this season and they look like they could be in for a beating at home this weekend. The Jaguars got schooled last week against the Seahawks and only managed to get some points on the board after Seattle put on their second-string defence. The Jags currently have the worst point differential in the league with -64. It isn't going to get any healthier this week as the Colts come to play. They come off a massive win against the 49ers and will be in expectant mood. Division games always add a little more spice to proceedings, and there are some people predicting that this could be a classic trap game. Don't believe it. Jacksonville are this seasons punching bag and the Colts will hit them hard and claim a nice win on the road. The game should be over by halftime and the Colts should outscore their opponents by at least 10 points.
Recommended Bet: Colts @ 1.27

New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday 18:00
Two teams that have started the season with completely different fortunes. Kansas have started in great form and are showing a lot of promise. The performance of Alex Smith has been really refreshing this year and he is in fine form. He has completed 61 percent of his passes for 669 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. His rushing is decent as well, putting up 114 yards even though he has been sacked ten times. The Chiefs have yet to commit a turnover in three games, quite a turnaround for a team that gave up the football 37 times in 2012. The Giants on the other hand have been in dire form. They didn't get off the mark against Carolina who laid waste to their offence last weekend and beat them 38-0. You would hope that it would spark some sort of reaction but I can't see it this week. Eli Manning is still experiencing the same problems in that he keeps turning over the ball and his offensive line can't keep him safe. Now they make the journey to Kansas to battle it out with an emerging defence coupled with an elite pass rush. Giants will need to get out of this rut quickly but this weekend at Arrowhead is not when it will happen. The Chiefs will keep rolling on and the Giants will need to take a long hard look in the mirror.
Recommended Bet: Chiefs @ 1.49

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Minnesota Vikings
Sunday 18:00
The NFL hits London. It is just a shame that it's with two teams that are both 0-3 and neither are in any kind of form. The best thing to come out of this game is that one of them will pick up their first win of the season. After last week's defeat against the Bears, Pittsburgh finally showed a bit of fight. Their offence showed some promise against a talented Bears defence, which does bode well for Steelers fans. Dick LeBeau's defence will need to be hot from the start to try and slow down Minnesota's Adrian Peterson. Ben Roethlisberger in London is always money and I think that this time around will be no different. Last week the Vikings found it difficult covering the tight end and dealing with the vertical threats, which plays right into the hands of Pittsburgh's Heath Miller and Antonio Brown. The Vikings defence hasn't stopped anyone in 2013 and watching Christian Ponder is like being on the Big Dipper. He is up and down every week. Pittsburgh has lost every game this season but they are a better team than the Vikings. They should have enough to contain Peterson, they have the better quarterback in Big Ben and they have more playmakers. At the neutral venue of Wembley Stadium, it should be a narrow victory for the Steelers.
Recommended Bet: Steelers @ 1.71

Seattle Seahawks @ Houston Texans
Sunday 18:00
The Seahawks look to be one of the best teams in the NFL currently but will come up against a sterner test this week. The Texans are a better team than what the Seahawks have been laying waste to recently. Seattle look like monsters at home in the CenturyLink, but on the road at Houston they should find themselves in a more testing environment. Houston defensive front might be in for a big day coming up against an offensive line that is without Russell Okung. The Texans are a decent team but do lack that killer instinct. Russell Wilson should do well in this game for the Seahawks. They won't batter the Texans but should come out on top. Seahawks have also outscored their last two opponents by 54 points. The Texans will put up a fight, but the Seahawks defensive line will prove to be too much.
Recommended Bet: Seahawks @ 1.78

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
Sunday 21:05
This could be the most interesting match up of Week 4. Both teams have produced some very good offensive performances this year and both defences have looked like they might just be the real deal. Statistically speaking New York is better than Tennessee in all of the important areas over the first three games of the season. Geno Smith came out on top last week against EJ Manuel in the battle of the rookie quarterbacks. But although the Jets won last week, they simply can't afford 20 penalties and two Smith turnovers again. The Titans defence could have a field day against Smith and continue their good run with a third win in four weeks. Jake Locker is really blazing it up for the Titans. He has amassed 572 passing yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions this year, which are good stats for any quarterback.
The Titans front seven should provide Smith with all he can handle. Back Tennessee to turn it up against the rookie quarterback and grab the victory.
Recommended Bet: Titans @ 1.56

Dallas Cowboys @ San Diego Chargers
Sunday 21:25
The Cowboys absolutely bossed the St. Louis Rams last weekend to bring them up to 2-1. This week they should be able to extend that to 3-1 when they take on San Diego at the Qualcomm Stadium. The Cowboys proved last week that they could run the ball to protect Tony Romo. They have gone about their business and have quietly become one of the better teams in the league. Their only loss this year was on the road but don't expect there to be another slip up here. The Cowboys' beating of the Rams pretty much cemented them as the only team in the NFC East that looks hard to beat. The Chargers are a much more complete team this time around but Philip Rivers is in for an unpleasant surprise when he laces up against a Dallas defence that has really come together under the tutelage of new coordinator Monte Kiffen. The Chargers will be fired up though as they will be playing in memory of Paul Oliver who took his own life this week. As much as they will play with heart and passion, I don't think it will be enough.
Recommended Bet: Cowboys @ 1.84

Philadelphia Eagles @ Denver Broncos
Sunday 21:25
The Denver Broncos have been in scintillating form this year. Peyton Manning continues to dominate every single defence that is put in front of him. Both of these teams like to score early and like to score often. It has the potential to be one of the biggest scoring first quarters in years. To try and stop the Broncos when they are on the road is a hard task, but coming into their own backyard and trying to get the better of them? Well you can forget that. Just hope that you don't get beat too badly. They have the number one spot in the league for offence and passing. The Eagles offence isn't bad either. They are second best in the league. Michael Vick has thrown for 832 yards and 5 touchdowns. That is not too shabby but when you compare it with the stats of Manning, who has 1,143 yards and 12 touchdowns, you can see that it might be an uphill struggle. Manning should feast on the Eagles defence and even if the Eagles can score quickly, they won't have enough to put him away. It has all the ingredients to be game of the week with some big points being scored.
Recommended Bet: Broncos @ 1.19

Washington Redskins @ Oakland Raiders
Sunday 21:25
It will be a tough game for the Redskins this week, as they have to travel to the O.co Coliseum for a road game against an improving Oakland Raiders. The Skins really haven't got out of first gear this year and RG3 is still not the player we saw run riot in his rookie season. RG3 was throwing the ball better last week so that is a plus for the Skins. The Raiders on the other hand are looking better and better. They were competitive against Denver in their last outing and now will try and push on from that. Putting their record to one side, Oakland are usually good at taking command of weak teams visiting their West Coast home. Terrelle Pryor could be in for a rewarding night against a Washington defence that are struggling to stop the run or the pass right now. It will be a battle between Pryor and RG3 as to who comes out on top. RG3 has the better options but isn't at his dynamic best. It could be a big day for Pryor and Oakland's offence and if that does happen it could be a killer blow to the Redskins.
Recommended Bet: Raiders @ 2.62

New England Patriots @ Atlanta Falcons
Monday 01:30
This is going to be another great game this week. Atlanta lost last week 23-27 against the underrated Dolphins in Miami. That only tells half the story as they were obliterated with injures which didn't help them. The Falcons are outperforming everyone but they are still losing. They were one of the strong tips for the Super Bowl pre season but it hasn't quite worked out that way once they hit the field. There is no reason to panic just yet as Roddy White is getting close to full fitness and once that happens Matt Ryan will have all three of his big targets to aim at. The Patriots on the other hand have been getting outplayed but are still finding ways to win. They could have Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola back from injury this week, but both may still not be 100 percent back to full fitness and game sharpness. Tom Brady may need to find another route to victory. The Patriots secondary going up against the likes of White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez could be a mismatch. The game is in Atlanta and Mike Smith doesn't lose back-to-back games often so back the Falcons potent offence with Gonzalez being the pick of the bunch.
Recommended Bet: Falcons @ 1.79

Miami Dolphins @ New Orleans Saints
Tuesday 01:40
We end Week 4 with a very strong game. Both teams head into this fixture undefeated. Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints have looked pretty special in their opening three games. Brees has proven that he can take a hit and still complete a touchdown pass. Rob Ryan's defence has been the toast of the Crescent City and showing signs that they could be one of the best in the league. They have limited their last two opponents to fewer than 200 yards through the air. Considering the amount of injuries to key players that he has had to deal with, he has done remarkably well. Dolphins have looked like their off-season renovations have really paid off and they are tied for first place in the AFC East. Unfortunately for the Dolphins they have been hit with a bunch of injuries, which include their defensive ace Cameron Wake. That is a tough break and Miami will miss him, so Brees should find a little more time to locate Jimmy Graham who could have a big game. This will be an exciting game with the pass offence of the Saints versus the pass defence of the Dolphins. Back the Saints to edge it.
Recommended Bet: Saints @ 1.35

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